631 Lake Marion Golf Resort · Poinciana, FL 34759

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2001 3,363 sqft lot $342/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice and peaceful Condo in the community of Lake Marion Golf Resort. This community features a lot of great amenities which include: 2 swimming pools and hot tub, fitness center, tennis court, playground, and a private lake front with picnic area, boat ramp, dock and fishing pier. 24-hour security gate.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Updated condo
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED CONDO
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Direction faces south
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported as $342; Total annual fees reported as $4,104; No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: HOA required (Stambaugh Inc / Lake Marion Golf Resort); Monthly association fee of $312 plus an additional $30 monthly fee; Association covers pool maintenance and grounds maintenance; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, playground, and street lights; Association approval required; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Paved access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One story; South facing; Open lot with mature landscaping; In-county location near public transit
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built with mature landscaping; Approximately 784 living area (public records)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Rear porch; Screened porch; Porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($779/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 8829% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $84k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,528
• Equity at exit: $27,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,523
• Equity at exit: $26,336

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$342
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,418

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 Lake Marion Golf Resort #1202 Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	981	$1,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.27mi
6101 Lake Marion Golf Resort Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	981	$1,229	$1.25	24d	1	0.33mi
341 Port Pleasant Dr Unit 341 Poinciana, FL	2.0	2.0	812	$1,450	$1.79	24d	1	0.37mi
1786 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.62mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.62mi
1764 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,390	$1.32	3d	1	0.63mi
1769 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,299	$1.66	24d	1	0.66mi
1560 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,395	$1.51	24d	1	0.68mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	3d	1	0.71mi
1631 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,500	$1.42	24d	1	0.71mi
1563 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	14d	1	0.71mi
1601 Cumin Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	923	$1,550	$1.68	10d	1	0.72mi
106 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,575	$1.48	3d	1	1.18mi
12 Herring Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,613	$1.53	24d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $342 · $4,104/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $125,000
16. 2026-04-17
    historical $1,400
17. 2026-04-16
    status Active
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $1,400
19. 2026-04-09
    listed $135,000 Active
20. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $84,000 Sold 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Nice and peaceful Condo in the community of Lake Marion Golf Resort. This community features a lot of great amenities which include: 2 swimming pools and hot tub, fitness center, tennis court, playground, and a private lake front with picnic area, boat ramp, dock and fishing pier. 24-hour security gate.

21. 2018-10-08
    status Pending 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Nice and peaceful Condo in the community of Lake Marion Golf Resort. This community features a lot of great amenities which include: 2 swimming pools and hot tub, fitness center, tennis court, playground, and a private lake front with picnic area, boat ramp, dock and fishing pier. 24-hour security gate.

22. 2018-09-04
    listed $82,000 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Nice and peaceful Condo in the community of Lake Marion Golf Resort. This community features a lot of great amenities which include: 2 swimming pools and hot tub, fitness center, tennis court, playground, and a private lake front with picnic area, boat ramp, dock and fishing pier. 24-hour security gate.

23. 2016-12-15
    soldstatus $59,500
24. 2016-12-01
    soldstatus $59,500 Sold 13-char remark

    Show marketing remark (13 chars)

    Ready to sale

25. 2016-11-18
    status Pending 13-char remark

    Show marketing remark (13 chars)

    Ready to sale

26. 2016-10-27
    status Active 13-char remark

    Show marketing remark (13 chars)

    Ready to sale

27. 2016-10-21
    status Pending 13-char remark

    Show marketing remark (13 chars)

    Ready to sale

28. 2016-10-05
    listed $65,000 Active 13-char remark

    Show marketing remark (13 chars)

    Ready to sale

29. 2010-01-21
    soldstatus $32,500
30. 2009-12-15
    listed $32,200
31. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus $135,000
32. 2005-12-01
    soldstatus $135,000
33. 2005-07-15
    listed $138,000
34. 2004-12-14
    soldstatus $95,000
35. 2004-11-30
    soldstatus $95,000
36. 2004-10-11
    listed $95,000
37. 2004-01-26
    soldstatus $78,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − HOA: −$4,104
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,093
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$262
• After-tax cash flow: $1,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+58.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-04 Listed $82,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records
• 2016-12-01 Sold (MLS) $59,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-05 Listed $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-21 Sold (MLS) $32,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-15 Listed $32,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-01 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-15 Listed $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-30 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-11 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $78,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +17.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.