1490 N 180th Dr · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1985 0.27 ac lot $173/sqft · at area comps Est $310k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home, 4 bedroom 2 bath located near freeways. This property has the fourth bedroom separate from the rest of the house. property also has two RV gates.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($643/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 375 students, 46% FRL); Youngker High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #206 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 2,099 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $290k implies a 1771% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,392 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,000
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -6.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1101 N 181st Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (-2%)	15mo	$350,000	$212	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,227
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-65,054
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $646/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $136	+0% $54	+5% $-29	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-34	+0% $54	+5% $141	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $127	base $54	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17350 W Woodlands Ave Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,879	$1.34	0d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    status Active 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great starter home, 4 bedroom 2 bath located near freeways. This property has the fourth bedroom separate from the rest of the house. property also has two RV gates.

17. 2026-05-15
    historical 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great starter home, 4 bedroom 2 bath located near freeways. This property has the fourth bedroom separate from the rest of the house. property also has two RV gates.

18. 2026-05-13
    price $290,000 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great starter home, 4 bedroom 2 bath located near freeways. This property has the fourth bedroom separate from the rest of the house. property also has two RV gates.

19. 2026-02-08
    price $300,000 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great starter home, 4 bedroom 2 bath located near freeways. This property has the fourth bedroom separate from the rest of the house. property also has two RV gates.

20. 2025-12-30
    listed $315,000 Active 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Great starter home, 4 bedroom 2 bath located near freeways. This property has the fourth bedroom separate from the rest of the house. property also has two RV gates.

21. 2010-08-25
    soldstatus $15,500 Closed 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

22. 2010-07-22
    status Pending 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

23. 2010-07-22
    listed $19,900 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

24. 2010-07-21
    soldstatus $15,500 Closed 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

25. 2010-06-25
    status Pending 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

26. 2010-06-15
    price $19,900 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

27. 2010-06-10
    listed $27,500 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great rental. Please submit proof of funds, agent email address, offer worksheet and must allow up to 4 days for time for acceptance,

28. 2001-08-02
    soldstatus $76,000
29. 1986-01-31
    soldstatus $37,000
30. 1985-01-30
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $646 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,268/yr (+$106/mo · 196.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$646
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $1,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1511.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $290,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Listed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-25 Sold (MLS) $15,500 ARMLS
• 2010-07-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-07-22 Listed $19,900 ARMLS
• 2010-07-21 Sold (MLS) $15,500 ARMLS
• 2010-06-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-06-15 Price Changed $19,900 ARMLS
• 2010-06-10 Listed $27,500 ARMLS
• 2001-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1986-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1985-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $646 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.