3043 Bailey Ave · New York, NY 10463

$969,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1920 3,079 sqft lot Est $692k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Excellent condition 2 Family for sale in the desire area of Kingsbridge Hight, 3 garages, and finished Basement plus 3 Bedrooms duplex over 1 Bedroom . . near shopping center, highway, park, train and much more, ZONE R6 CALL FOR A VIEW. .

Key facts

• Finished basement
• Near highway
• Near train

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEAR SHOPPING CENTER
• NEAR HIGHWAY
• NEAR PARK
• NEAR TRAIN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Three garage spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Sewer available
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: One 4-bedroom unit
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Natural woodwork; Finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $969k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($505/yr) — positive. Per door: $21/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $768k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $768k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,685/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 5586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($853k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $385k; list at $969k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $768,500 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $692,472
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3607 Irwin Ave	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,060 (+9%)	3mo	$753,200	$366	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-114,018
• Equity at exit: $144,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $87,823
• Equity at exit: $83,781

Cash invested: $271,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10463

• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 21.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,082
• Tax from tax record: −$544 /mo · $6,525/yr
• Insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,614
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,632

Max offer price $969,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $591	-5% $316	+0% $42	+5% $-232	+10% $-506
Rent	-10% $-565	-5% $-261	+0% $42	+5% $346	+10% $649
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $289	base $42	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-464

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$7,684
Total (2 units)			$7,685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $242,250
• Closing costs: $29,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$5,100	$4.50	24d	3	0.64mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-04
   listed $969,000 Active
3. 2025-12-04
   historical
4. 2025-12-04
   listed $969,000 Active
5. 2025-11-04
   historical
6. 2025-09-24
   price $999,999
7. 2025-07-16
   listed $1,100,000 Active
8. 2022-10-21
   historical
9. 2022-10-08
   price $895,000
10. 2022-10-04
    price $899,000
11. 2022-07-21
    listed $929,000 Active
12. 2004-12-23
    soldstatus $385,000
13. 2004-01-29
    soldstatus $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,525 · $544/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,450 · $954/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,926/yr (+$410/mo · 75.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $92,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,279
• − Property taxes: −$6,525
• − Insurance: −$4,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,378
• − Management: −$7,378
• − Depreciation: −$28,189
• Taxable loss: −$16,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,930
• After-tax cash flow: $4,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,470
• Household income: $74,974
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5586.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1% Dominican 25%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.75%
• Current HPI: 168.0211
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.60%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+252.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $969,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $969,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-08 Price Changed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-04 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-21 Listed $929,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $385,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,525 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.