6469 June Bug Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$264,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2023 6,664 sqft lot Est $261k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ADDISON floorplan! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Located in a brand new subdivision near the corner of Audiss Rd and Ventura Blvd, the Addison B floorplan offers a smart layout with a spacious living area. The family gathering space is located in the center of the home with a defined dining area. The owner's suite has privacy from the other bedrooms thanks to the split floorplan. The kitchen has great workspace with Energy Star rated black and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

• 6,664 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approx. 50 x 134 (0.153 acres)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee (approximately $400) covering association, management, and recreation facility; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Two covered parking spaces; Front entrance access to garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring with circuit breakers; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homestead eligible; Interior lot
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with energy-efficient features including heat pump, insulation, insulated walls
• Exterior features: Private backyard with fencing; Patio; Porch; Paved, county-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Built-in microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher and refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 12); Additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (cooling)
• Interior features: Baseboards; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Insulated doors; Storm door(s); Double pane windows; Blinds; Shutters; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-823/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 822 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,517 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,072
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6516 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+1%)	1mo	$279,900	$179	90
6496 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+1%)	2mo	$281,900	$180	89
6501 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-7%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	74
6513 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-7%)	1mo	$259,900	$181	74
6465 Firefly Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-7%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	73
4081 Audiss Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+2%)	2mo	$230,000	$146	66
6520 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	0mo	$292,000	$163	62
6504 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	61
6524 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	1mo	$294,900	$165	61
6488 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	1mo	$294,900	$165	61
6396 Firefly Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	1mo	$294,900	$165	61
6480 Firefly Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	2mo	$295,800	$166	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-43,967
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,433
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 822
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,072/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $251,878

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $6	+0% $-69	+5% $-143	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-150	+0% $-69	+5% $13	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-1	base $-69	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	23d	1	0.34mi
4170 Roosevelt Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	25d	1	0.51mi
6607 Woodbury Forest Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	25d	1	0.75mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	25d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $264,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    historical $279,900
18. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus $255,990 Sold 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    ADDISON floorplan! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Located in a brand new subdivision near the corner of Audiss Rd and Ventura Blvd, the Addison B floorplan offers a smart layout with a spacious living area. The family gathering space is located in the center of the home with a defined dining area. The owner's suite has privacy from the other bedrooms thanks to the split floorplan. The kitchen has great workspace with Energy Star rated black and stainless steel appliances.

19. 2023-01-26
    historical 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    ADDISON floorplan! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Located in a brand new subdivision near the corner of Audiss Rd and Ventura Blvd, the Addison B floorplan offers a smart layout with a spacious living area. The family gathering space is located in the center of the home with a defined dining area. The owner's suite has privacy from the other bedrooms thanks to the split floorplan. The kitchen has great workspace with Energy Star rated black and stainless steel appliances.

20. 2023-01-25
    listed $261,990 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    ADDISON floorplan! 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Located in a brand new subdivision near the corner of Audiss Rd and Ventura Blvd, the Addison B floorplan offers a smart layout with a spacious living area. The family gathering space is located in the center of the home with a defined dining area. The owner's suite has privacy from the other bedrooms thanks to the split floorplan. The kitchen has great workspace with Energy Star rated black and stainless steel appliances.

21. 2022-12-19
    soldstatus $756,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,191 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$2,072
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$5,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-63.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $279,900 PARMLS
• 2023-06-07 Sold (MLS) $255,990 PARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Listed $261,990 PARMLS
• 2022-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $756,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+65.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,072 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.