111 Barker Ave · Tinton Falls, NJ 07724

$280,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $250k · 12% over $460/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Why rent when you can own this 3BR 1BA co-op in Vail Homes! Kitchen offers granite counter & large pantry closet. 3rd BR presently used as office. Updates include: new back splash in kitchen & BA, new crown molding, new chair rail & new recess lighting in Hallway & LR along with new recess lighting in 2BR's. New BA vanity, new closet organizers. New interior doors, new sheet rock, new baseboard molding & new fans thru-out. New attic stairs, new 12x16 backyard deck with railing & gate. 2yr H2O. Minutes to major hwys, hospitals, Jersey Shore beaches, shops, eateries, mass transit & renowned Red Bank. Room sizes are approx. This development is a pet friendly community.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Gas cooking
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKING
• PANTRY
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• LVP FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Alfred Vail Mutual Association); Monthly association fee; HOA amenities include common area and playground; HOA fee includes trash and common area

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Cooperative ownership; Model: 3 BR
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Property is attached

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on second level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling present (type: Other)
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Stove, Refrigerator included; Gas cooking; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.7% in Tinton Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#319 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tinton Falls School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #209 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $280k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,265 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,984
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49 Barker Ave	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	576 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$434	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-60,526
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-71,514
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07724

• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,873/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,892

Max offer price $237,265

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59C Southbrook Dr Eatontown, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$2,749	$3.22	1d	3	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   status Active
3. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-19
   listed $280,000 Active
5. 2020-12-08
   soldstatus $159,900 Sold 714-char remark

   Show marketing remark (714 chars)

   Why rent when you can own this 3BR 1BA co-op in Vail Homes! Kitchen offers granite counter & large pantry closet. 3rd BR presently used as office. Updates include: new back splash in kitchen & BA, new crown molding, new chair rail & new recess lighting in Hallway & LR along with new recess lighting in 2BR's. New BA vanity, new closet organizers. New interior doors, new sheet rock, new baseboard molding & new fans thru-out. New attic stairs, new 12x16 backyard deck with railing & gate. 2yr H2O. Minutes to major hwys, hospitals, Jersey Shore beaches, shops, eateries, mass transit & renowned Red Bank. Room sizes are approx. This development is a pet friendly community.

6. 2020-08-26
   status Pending 714-char remark

   Show marketing remark (714 chars)

   Why rent when you can own this 3BR 1BA co-op in Vail Homes! Kitchen offers granite counter & large pantry closet. 3rd BR presently used as office. Updates include: new back splash in kitchen & BA, new crown molding, new chair rail & new recess lighting in Hallway & LR along with new recess lighting in 2BR's. New BA vanity, new closet organizers. New interior doors, new sheet rock, new baseboard molding & new fans thru-out. New attic stairs, new 12x16 backyard deck with railing & gate. 2yr H2O. Minutes to major hwys, hospitals, Jersey Shore beaches, shops, eateries, mass transit & renowned Red Bank. Room sizes are approx. This development is a pet friendly community.

7. 2020-08-11
   listed $159,900 Active 714-char remark

   Show marketing remark (714 chars)

   Why rent when you can own this 3BR 1BA co-op in Vail Homes! Kitchen offers granite counter & large pantry closet. 3rd BR presently used as office. Updates include: new back splash in kitchen & BA, new crown molding, new chair rail & new recess lighting in Hallway & LR along with new recess lighting in 2BR's. New BA vanity, new closet organizers. New interior doors, new sheet rock, new baseboard molding & new fans thru-out. New attic stairs, new 12x16 backyard deck with railing & gate. 2yr H2O. Minutes to major hwys, hospitals, Jersey Shore beaches, shops, eateries, mass transit & renowned Red Bank. Room sizes are approx. This development is a pet friendly community.

8. 2018-04-26
   soldstatus $106,000 Sold 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Cozy and comfortable attached and affordable home with three bedrooms, updated eat in kitchen, backyard, and quiet street. Monthly taxes 238.50, Maint fees, 243,96, plus electric and water billed together through the association.

9. 2018-03-09
   status Pending 231-char remark

   Show marketing remark (231 chars)

   Cozy and comfortable attached and affordable home with three bedrooms, updated eat in kitchen, backyard, and quiet street. Monthly taxes 238.50, Maint fees, 243,96, plus electric and water billed together through the association.

10. 2018-02-16
    price $112,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Cozy and comfortable attached and affordable home with three bedrooms, updated eat in kitchen, backyard, and quiet street. Monthly taxes 238.50, Maint fees, 243,96, plus electric and water billed together through the association.

11. 2017-11-08
    price $118,000 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Cozy and comfortable attached and affordable home with three bedrooms, updated eat in kitchen, backyard, and quiet street. Monthly taxes 238.50, Maint fees, 243,96, plus electric and water billed together through the association.

12. 2017-10-10
    listed $123,900 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Cozy and comfortable attached and affordable home with three bedrooms, updated eat in kitchen, backyard, and quiet street. Monthly taxes 238.50, Maint fees, 243,96, plus electric and water billed together through the association.

13. 2011-10-11
    listed $114,900
14. 2010-10-17
    listed $110,000
15. 2000-11-14
    soldstatus $50,000
16. 2000-09-08
    historical
17. 2000-08-06
    listed $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,873 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,922 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,050/yr (+$171/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,873
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,561
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,815
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tinton Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 3416200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $73,461
• Composite: 37.45/100
• National rank: #4411
• State rank: #209 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Tinton Falls

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #9845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,016
• Household income: $102,756
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.64%
• Current HPI: 330.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+423.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $280,000 MOMLS
• 2020-12-08 Sold (MLS) $159,900 MOMLS
• 2020-08-26 Pending — MOMLS
• 2020-08-11 Listed $159,900 MOMLS
• 2018-04-26 Sold (MLS) $106,000 MOMLS
• 2018-03-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-02-16 Price Changed $112,000 MOMLS
• 2017-11-08 Price Changed $118,000 MOMLS
• 2017-10-10 Listed $123,900 MOMLS
• 2011-10-11 Listed $114,900 MOMLS
• 2010-10-17 Listed $110,000 MOMLS
• 2000-11-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MOMLS
• 2000-09-08 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2000-08-06 Listed $53,500 MOMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,873 · +36.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.