6818 W Villa St · Phoenix, AZ 85043

$183,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! Build in 2023, this manufactured home offers an open concept living with 3 bedroom and 2 baths. The home features modern finishes throughout, including granite countertops, an extended kitchen island, stylist cabinetry, and newer appliances. The refrigerator is included with the sale. Enjoy the versatility of the extended enclosed cover patio, ideal for sunroom, hobby space or additional storage space. Situated on a desirable corner lot within a gated community, directly across from community amenities, including a swimming pool, fitness center, laundry facilities, pickleball court and on-site salon. With easy access to I-10, loop 202, and close proximity to shopping, dining a

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open concept living
• Community amenities

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• EXTENDED KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXTENDED ENCLOSED COVER PATIO
• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: owner; Lot size source: assessor
• Financial info: Current financing: other
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly $1,066); Association includes water; some no-fee options noted; Community pool; Community spa; Pickleball courts; Community laundry; Fitness center; Biking/walking path; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered spaces; 3 carport spaces; 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding; Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Gravel/stone front; Fenced (other); Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Full bath in primary bedroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Tolleson Union High School District (4288) (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #188 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Linda High School (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 1,975 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,120
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6810 W Mckinley St	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+2%)	4mo	$115,000	$86	85
6723 W Fillmore St #301	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	12mo	$70,000	$52	83
649 N 67th Dr #25	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	10mo	$130,000	$97	83
500 N 67th Ave #129	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	17mo	$30,000	$23	81
6839 W Taylor St #209	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+2%)	13mo	$110,000	$82	75
618 N 68th Ln N #148	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	21mo	$127,000	$106	62
6705 W Fillmore St W #305	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+10%)	14mo	$95,500	$66	61
451 N 68th Ln #168	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+14%)	16mo	$70,000	$47	59
401 N 68th Ave #247	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+14%)	15mo	$89,500	$60	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,682
• Equity at exit: $27,360

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,584
• Equity at exit: $15,866

Cash invested: $51,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85043

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$962
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$229 /mo · $2,752/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $183,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,875
• Closing costs: $5,505
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7044 W Taylor St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1588	$1,869	$1.18	10d	1	0.35mi
6628 W Monroe St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1656	$2,100	$1.27	1d	1	0.52mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$1,593	$1.53	1d	1	0.58mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Unit M 12-106 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$2,045	$1.96	1d	1	0.61mi
7077 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,620	$2.07	1d	14	0.67mi
6515 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,738	$1.75	1d	7	0.70mi
6441 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$1,231	$1.68	1d	18	0.74mi
7205 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1291	$1,940	$1.50	1d	6	0.76mi
1653 N 69th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,949	$1.90	1d	1	0.81mi
6231 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	752	$1,681	$2.23	1d	49	0.92mi
1801 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,845	$1.04	14d	1	1.00mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,955	$1.98	1d	38	1.07mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	952	$1,867	$1.96	23d	1	1.07mi
7361 W Coronado Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,795	$1.20	10d	1	1.09mi
6343 W Cypress St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,780	$1.39	1d	1	1.24mi
7725 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,705	$2.21	1d	50	1.26mi
5821 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$2,324	$2.33	1d	11	1.35mi
1947 N 77th Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	1383	$2,100	$1.52	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,500 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,500 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,500 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,500 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,500 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $183,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $183,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,279
• − Property taxes: −$2,752
• − Insurance: −$918
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$5,338
• Taxable income: $665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $3,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and a desirable location. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Rental trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental trim landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tolleson Union High School District (4288)
• NCES district ID: 0408520
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,925
• Composite: 16.41/100
• National rank: #9193
• State rank: #188 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,331
• Household income: $78,257
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 11% Black 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.22%
• Current HPI: 309.495
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $183,500 ARMLS