10131 Morning Meadowlark Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$349,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $432k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at the Atrium at Oakfield Trails, a new community with walking trails, green spaces, and a private social club for recreation and gathering. This Atrium spans two floors and roughly 2,150 square feet, with three bedrooms, two full baths, a powder room, and a two-car garage. The main level opens into a great room that connects to the dining area and kitchen in one continuous L-shaped flow, with GE stainless appliances, Frost White quartz countertops, and Southern Century Gray cabinetry carrying through the space. Upstairs, three bedrooms sit toward the front of the home and share a double-vanity bath, while the primary suite occupies its own corner with a walk-in closet, two-sink

Key facts

• Large windows
• Spacious great room
• Spa-like bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS
• EXPANSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-LIKE BATHROOM
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $354,985

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family home, The Atrium plan; Spec inventory (new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 10131 Morning Meadowlark Trl, Parrish FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area of 2160; Spec new construction (The Atrium plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $290,149 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $432,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10729 Monarch Wood Gln	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+5%)	0mo	$366,160	$162	82
9977 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,260 (+5%)	1mo	$337,296	$149	77
11346 Meadow River Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+5%)	2mo	$440,100	$195	66
10325 Spruce River Way	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,131 (-1%)	2mo	$455,450	$214	64
10030 Cross River Trl	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,143 (-1%)	0mo	$427,990	$200	63
10717 Spanish Needle Cv	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,333 (+8%)	0mo	$408,500	$175	62
10023 Laurel Fork Way	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-7%)	0mo	$530,000	$263	60
10025 Trellis Vine Way	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,262 (+5%)	1mo	$455,300	$201	57
9972 Morning Meadowlark Trl	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+13%)	1mo	$394,000	$161	57
11359 Meadow River Way	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,397 (+11%)	1mo	$525,510	$219	56
9915 Trellis Vine Way	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+5%)	1mo	$414,330	$183	56
9913 Laurel Fork Way	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,427 (+12%)	1mo	$714,126	$294	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-73,231
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-106,828
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,062

Max offer price $331,682

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	10d	1	0.48mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	0.57mi
11454 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,575	$1.57	16d	1	0.65mi
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	23d	1	0.69mi
11880 Little River Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	23d	1	0.84mi
11884 Little River Way Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2142	$3,250	$1.52	16d	1	0.84mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,400	$1.70	3d	1	0.84mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	3d	1	0.91mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.05mi
11230 82nd St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,495	$1.42	16d	1	1.15mi
11567 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,999	$1.41	3d	1	1.16mi
9928 Wimico Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,450	$1.63	16d	1	1.20mi
11522 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,300	$1.45	23d	1	1.25mi
11523 84th Street Cir E #105 Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1588	$1,950	$1.23	3d	1	1.26mi
8544 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,300	$1.26	11d	1	1.31mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,304	$1.46	1d	32	1.32mi
8522 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1822	$2,000	$1.10	23d	1	1.32mi
10749 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2447	$2,549	$1.04	23d	1	1.35mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	1.38mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	3d	1	1.38mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	10d	1	1.38mi
8443 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,000	$0.92	23d	1	1.39mi
10935 Gentle Current Way Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$3,900	$1.50	23d	1	1.40mi
8423 Canyon Creek Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1823	$2,400	$1.32	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $349,990 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $354,985 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $354,985 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $354,985 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $354,985 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,985 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $354,985 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $354,985 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $354,985 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $354,985 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $354,985 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $354,985 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $354,985 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $354,985 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $354,985 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,785
• − Management: −$2,785
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$7,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Ruskin, Florida, offers a good condition with modern amenities and a good curb appeal. It has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Updating the flooring in the living areas — Newer flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the living areas — Newer flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home technology can increase convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B