The Bailey Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$299,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out the Bailey, one of our newest floorplans available at Swenson Heights in Seguin, Texas. This one-story new home has 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage within 1,874 square feet of comfortable living space. Our homes in Swenson Heights feature our farmhouse exteriors and the Bailey is available in 2 exterior options. Step inside the home from the covered front porch. You'll notice a long hallway that connects you to the four secondary bedrooms and the open concept living space. A full bathroom is located off the hallway near Bedroom 5 and features a shower/tub combination and a cultured marble vanity with trench sink. The utility room is near the front of the home, between Bedroom 2 and 3, helping make your laundry chores an easy task for everyone in the home. There is plenty of closet space in the Bailey, with each bedroom and two hall closets featuring wood shelving for all your prized possessions. The living area is an open concept design, so you are always close to the action in the family room, kitchen and dining room. The kitchen features an island with a stainless-steel sink, quartz countertops, 42" upper 'picture frame' cabinets, a walk-in pantry closet and stainless-steel appliances. The primary bedroom is off the family room and includes its own attached bathroom, making the start of your day a seamless step from sleep to your morning routine. The bathroom includes a walk-in shower, cultured marble vanity with trench sink and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• One story floorplan
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLAN
• SWENSON HEIGHTS COMMUNITY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,614.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1603 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,788 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.04%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,614
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -1.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1013 Prince Albert	0.57mi	5/3.0	1,874 (0%)	1mo	$259,990	$139	73
1037 Norway Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,034 (+8%)	1mo	$294,000	$145	73
1012 Betsy Dr Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,034 (+8%)	0mo	$270,000	$133	72
1228 Marvin Grv	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-4%)	1mo	$299,990	$167	71
1007 Bold Run	0.55mi	5/2.5	1,892 (+1%)	3mo	$282,990	$150	69
1038 Gladys Run	0.58mi	5/2.5	1,892 (+1%)	3mo	$289,990	$153	67
727 Prince Albert	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (-5%)	4mo	$289,990	$162	63
748 Prince Albert	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,034 (+8%)	4mo	$336,990	$166	58
1409 Burrs Ferry Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,074 (+11%)	4mo	$354,990	$171	57
1008 Village Run	0.46mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,034 (+8%)	4mo	$324,990	$160	56
312 Angus Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,121 (+13%)	4mo	$310,990	$147	52
1017 Prince Albert	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-12%)	0mo	$244,990	$149	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-78,977
• Equity at exit: $45,568

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-112,183
• Equity at exit: $26,424

Cash invested: $85,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 50 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $289,945 ($154/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1603
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,584/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $243,247

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-325	+0% $-431	+5% $-537	+10% $-642
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-515	+0% $-431	+5% $-347	+10% $-263
Rate	-1.0pp $-277	-0.5pp $-353	base $-431	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,403
• Closing costs: $9,168
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Ida Loop Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,850	$1.03	32d	1	0.17mi
1007 Bold Run Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1892	$1,850	$0.98	16d	1	0.57mi
408 Jacks Pl Seguin, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,275	$0.88	9d	1	1.19mi
416 Jacks Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,100	$0.92	21d	1	1.21mi
416 Jacks Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2281	$2,100	$0.92	25d	1	1.21mi
313 Jean St Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	2526	$2,025	$0.80	9d	1	1.32mi
3713 Tripps Pl Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	2089	$2,095	$1.00	9d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $299,990 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 160 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 157 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 156 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 155 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 154 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 153 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 147 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 146 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 145 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 144 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 143 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 142 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 141 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 140 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 138 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 136 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 135 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 131 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 130 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 129 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 127 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 126 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 122 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 118 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,584
• − Insurance: −$1,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$8,891
• Taxable loss: −$10,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,562
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Bailey Plan home in Seguin, TX is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a smart home system and has a well-maintained exterior and interior. Adding smart home features, landscaping improvements, and kitchen/bathroom updates can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Adding smart home features can enhance both the resale and rental value by providing modern conveniences and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Painting — Refreshing the paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and make it more attractive to potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Navarro El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Navarro Int D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Navarro H S D+ TX #447/1,632 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $299,990 Zillow