637 Hierholzer St · Celina, OH 45822

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1937 7,405 sqft lot Est $146k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Buyers take a look! EVERYTHING in this home is new with the exception of the four original walls and roof rafters. GE kitchen appliances included. A car shed with enclosed locked storage offers extra space for your tools. This is not a small lot measuring 50X150. Perfect for a first time home buyer or someone looking to downsize. Call to schedule your showing before this one is sold!

Key facts

• Car shed
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• GE KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• CAR SHED
• ENCLOSED LOCKED STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Follow GPS. Home is at the northeast corner of Hierholzer & Deford.

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Supplied water
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1937; Subdivision: Citizens Add
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Built in 1937
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Residential lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 150 (0.17 acres); Supplied water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (10.9 x 12.8); Bedroom 2 (10.8 x 13.2)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (6 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Celina City (town): math 64% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #299 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $159k implies a 489% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,185 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 W Anthony St	0.45mi	2/1.0	848 (-2%)	2mo	$65,000	$77	74
637 Hoying St	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	780 (-10%)	8mo	$118,500	$152	65
515 W Fayette St	0.62mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	7mo	$155,000	$190	55
628 Hoying St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+14%)	6mo	$135,000	$136	54
614 Hoying St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	954 (+10%)	21mo	$153,000	$160	53
221 S Mill St	0.74mi	2/1.0	902 (+4%)	12mo	$150,000	$166	49
116 S Elm St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	2mo	$216,000	$225	46
102 Zillah St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	940 (+8%)	10mo	$188,000	$200	43
209 E Forest St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+8%)	15mo	$157,500	$168	39
120 Morton St	0.63mi	2/1.0	750 (-14%)	22mo	$130,000	$173	29
310 E Forest St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	936 (+8%)	20mo	$178,000	$190	27
306 S Brandon Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	930 (+7%)	21mo	$135,000	$145	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,569
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,702
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45822

• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $238	+0% $193	+5% $148	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $135	+0% $193	+5% $250	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $233	base $193	+0.5pp $151	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 387-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $159,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,566 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$914/yr (+$76/mo · 140.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina City
• NCES district ID: 3910030
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,168
• Composite: 50.44/100
• National rank: #1864
• State rank: #299 of 656 in OH

Livability — Celina

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #6556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, OH
• County: Mercer · 42,068 people
• Population (ZIP): 20,170
• Household income: $72,106
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 15.9

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,163 people
• By 2030: 39,367 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 37,406 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 34,917 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 28,969 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 21,338 · -46.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.3% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.25%
• Current HPI: 204.0486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+488.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $159,000 WRIST
• 1992-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $652 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.