31151 Midnight Sun Way · Wesley Chapel, FL 33545

$304,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Land · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The builder is offering buyers up to $25,000 towards closing costs with the use of a preferred lender and title company. Towns at Woodsdale are situated with quick access to I-75 and in a prime location of the Wesley Chapel - booming city, which was recently named by the North Tampa Bay Chambers of Commerce as the region’s most desirable location in the Tampa suburbs. Close to all things shopping, dining, entertainment, and not to mention the area’s top-rated local and charter schools, this community offers you endless opportunities. This community features thoughtfully designed, open-concept floor plans to suit every lifestyle. Each home is built with durable concrete block con

Key facts

• Quick access to i-75
• Prime location
• Smart home system

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO I-75
• PRIME LOCATION
• TOP-RATED LOCAL SCHOOLS
• TOP-RATED CHARTER SCHOOLS
• SMART HOME SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD (Community Development District) present; Permit number: 2025-004817
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA fee of $60 ($720 annually); Association approval required; HOA covers maintenance of grounds; Community amenities: clubhouse, playground, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (11 x 20) with parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Under construction (projected completion August 30, 2026); Two levels; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built by D.R. Horton; Builder model: Pearson A; New construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Clubhouse, playground and pool in the community; Park nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Electric water heater; Home warranty included
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer included; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wesley Chapel Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 828 students, 37% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $232,319 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-68,612
• Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-102,039
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33545

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,917/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,569

Max offer price $270,682

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-108	+0% $-194	+5% $-281	+10% $-367
Rent	-10% $-378	-5% $-286	+0% $-194	+5% $-102	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-117	base $-194	+0.5pp $-273	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31276 Paper Birch St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	26d	1	0.12mi
31325 Midnight Sun Way Unit 1 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	0.15mi
31364 Midnight Sun Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	14d	1	0.18mi
31364 Midnight Sun Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$1,995	$1.19	22d	1	0.18mi
31351 Paper Birch St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,400	$1.64	22d	1	0.20mi
31365 Paper Birch St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,300	$1.57	16d	1	0.22mi
8318 Claw Glades Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,450	$1.33	16d	1	0.34mi
31454 Barrel Wave Way Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,799	$1.50	26d	1	0.35mi
8824 Overlook Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	26d	1	0.82mi
31700 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,245	$1.24	1d	1	0.90mi
31700 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,245	$1.24	6d	1	0.90mi
30513 Randall Manor St Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,400	$1.44	1d	1	0.95mi
31993 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,300	$1.27	19d	1	0.95mi
31641 Blue Passing Loop Unit Epperson Logoon Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	6d	1	0.96mi
31632 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,650	$1.66	19d	1	0.96mi
30633 Totteridge Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1805	$2,195	$1.22	26d	1	0.97mi
30441 Annadale Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,175	$1.17	22d	1	0.97mi
7632 Armonk Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1471	$2,400	$1.63	26d	1	0.99mi
8069 Rolling Shell Trl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,200	$1.25	26d	1	1.02mi
31535 Blue Passing Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,099	$1.31	26d	1	1.06mi
7507 Canal Point Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1831	$2,400	$1.31	26d	1	1.10mi
7724 Outerbridge St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	3d	1	1.13mi
7733 Outerbridge St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	3d	1	1.15mi
32311 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	23d	1	1.18mi
31352 Golden Gate Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,550	$1.55	13d	1	1.18mi
32323 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,980	$1.18	26d	1	1.19mi
32312 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,300	$1.37	3d	1	1.21mi
32492 Welling Blade Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,295	$1.31	12d	1	1.26mi
32389 Turtle Grace Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,400	$1.43	25d	1	1.26mi
32519 Welling Blade Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	12d	1	1.29mi
30406 Arrochar St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,099	$1.13	26d	1	1.29mi
7919 Dynamic Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	2.0	1180	$2,052	$1.74	1d	1	1.37mi
32257 Snowberry Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$2,113	$2.05	0d	24	1.43mi
7852 Tranquility Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,279	$2.13	0d	29	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $304,990 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $304,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $304,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   price $304,990
5. 2026-05-16
   price $310,990
6. 2026-05-16
   status Active
7. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
8. 2026-02-03
   listed $304,990 Active
9. 2024-05-06
   soldstatus $4,620,280

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,917 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$2,917
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$7,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,848
• After-tax cash flow: $-482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,222
• Household income: $118,889
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 287.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 20% Black 14% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.59%
• Current HPI: 273.0769
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.68%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $304,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $310,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $304,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $4,620,280 Public Records

Property tax history

+435.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,917 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.