3216 N Winnebago St · Rockford, IL 61103

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1957 6,534 sqft lot Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home where modern luxury meets everyday convenience. Nearly every inch of this house has been refreshed, featuring brand-new flooring throughout and a crisp, professional paint job. The kitchen and bathroom shine with stunning granite countertops. Enjoy a massive corner lot perfect for gardening or play, featuring a private patio for summer BBQs. Includes an attached 1-car garage and a prime location just minutes from shopping and bus lines.

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Brand-new flooring
• Massive corner lot

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• BRAND-NEW FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MASSIVE CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE PATIO
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($862/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West View Elem School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 420 students, 0% FRL); West Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 849 students, 0% FRL); Auburn High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,936 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,923 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.94%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,408
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2312 Jonathan Ave Ave	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,466 (-8%)	3mo	$116,000	$79	81
2023 Crestwood Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,447 (-9%)	1mo	$195,000	$135	73
1908 W Pearl Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,456 (-9%)	0mo	$85,000	$58	72
3504 N Rockton Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,674 (+5%)	2mo	$170,000	$102	71
3016 Latham St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,589 (-0%)	1mo	$135,000	$85	68
2310 N Winnebago St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,542 (-3%)	2mo	$140,000	$91	58
2310 N Winnebago Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,542 (-3%)	2mo	$140,000	$91	58
3423 N Church St	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,672 (+5%)	1mo	$176,000	$105	54
3415 Huffman Blvd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-10%)	4mo	$183,000	$128	54
3432 N Court St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,439 (-10%)	2mo	$141,000	$98	53
1502 River Bluff Blvd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,497 (-6%)	2mo	$161,000	$108	53
2216 Dresden Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+14%)	4mo	$155,000	$85	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,466
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $29,310
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61103

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,171/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $117	+0% $72	+5% $27	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $14	+0% $72	+5% $129	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $112	base $72	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2535 Halsted Rd Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0–1.5	850	$1,399	$1.65	15d	1	0.36mi
3007 Huffman Blvd Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,450	$1.12	45d	1	0.45mi
3422 Fremont St Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,975	$1.16	15d	1	0.76mi
2308 Fremont St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,600	$1.21	45d	1	0.99mi
3701 Trilling Ave Unit 3701-104 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	15d	1	1.26mi
2422 Benderwirt Ave Unit 2422-1 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,025	$0.89	45d	1	1.36mi
1617 Vermont St Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1375	$1,325	$0.96	45d	1	1.40mi
1405 N Court St Unit 1407 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1530	$1,100	$0.72	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   soldstatus $165,000
2. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-07
   status Active
4. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-12
   listed $159,000 Active
6. 2005-11-28
   soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,171 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,890 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$719/yr (+$60/mo · 33.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,171
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $51,161
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1402.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.02%
• Current HPI: 215.8559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-10 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2026-02-16 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $159,000 NWIAR
• 2005-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,171 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.