Plan 3029 Plan · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$343,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily · 354 Days on market

$90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

Key facts

• Study
• Extended entry
• Island kitchen

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• STUDY
• EXTENDED ENTRY
• VALET
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $343,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $346,622.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $344k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 354 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $236,282 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 354 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.65%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,622
• List price: $343,990
• Delta: -0.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29961 Stony Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+0%)	1mo	$349,900	$203	91
30410 Creek Valley Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+0%)	6mo	$349,900	$203	86
30414 Creek Valley Ct	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+2%)	4mo	$339,900	$195	86
29930 Stony Forest Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+1%)	3mo	$359,900	$207	84
29977 Stony Forest Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+2%)	6mo	$349,900	$201	83
30314 Ruby Forest Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-4%)	5mo	$324,900	$197	81
29934 Stony Forest Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+4%)	1mo	$314,900	$176	81
29973 Stony Forest Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+1%)	6mo	$349,900	$202	78
29946 Stony Forest Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,866 (+9%)	2mo	$359,990	$193	71
29985 Stony Forest Dr	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,856 (+8%)	4mo	$349,990	$189	71
30309 Ruby Forest Ct	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,878 (+10%)	4mo	$349,900	$186	65
30027 Black Cherry St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-10%)	4mo	$239,900	$155	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $143,253
• Equity at exit: $312,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $441,769
• Equity at exit: $673,411

Cash invested: $97,054 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,363 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,818
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$433 /mo · $5,199/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,146

Max offer price $257,081

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,656
• Closing costs: $10,399
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.17mi
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $343,990 Active 354 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $343,990 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $343,990 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $343,990 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $343,990 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $343,990 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $343,990 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $343,990 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $343,990 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $343,990 Active 339 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $343,990 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $343,990 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $343,990 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $343,990 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

15. 2026-03-12
    price $338,990 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

16. 2025-07-22
    status Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

17. 2025-07-15
    historical 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

18. 2025-07-08
    status Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

19. 2025-07-08
    historical 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

20. 2025-06-20
    listed $333,990 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    Open concept great room, dining & kitchen, Extended casual dining room, Spacious kitchen with ample counter space, Secluded primary bedroom, Oversized walk-in closet , Large laundry room, Study with optional French doors, Extended entry

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,416
• − Property taxes: −$5,199
• − Insurance: −$1,733
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$10,084
• Taxable loss: −$13,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,287
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $343,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-20 Listed $333,990 Zillow