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Plan 2831 Plan 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 29.42
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.5/30.0
  • Schools +4.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.6/10.0
  • DSCR +0.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$329,990

Plan 2831 Plan · Heartland, TX 75114
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,831 sqft · SingleFamily · 381 Days on market
Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Expansive den * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Front porch * Kitchen island * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Fishing dock * Swimming pools * Sports courts * Fitness center * Dog park

Key facts

  • Walk-in closet
  • Dual-sink vanity
  • Expansive den

Tags

EXPANSIVE DENDUAL-SINK VANITYWALK-IN CLOSETSMART THERMOSTATTANKLESS WATER HEATERWALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,362.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-699 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (4.2% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (16.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $277k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 956 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 66% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 381 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $276,628 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 381 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.66%
Cap rate
4.28%
Cash-on-cash
-7.18%
DSCR
0.68
GRM
12.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$417,362
List price
$329,990
Delta
-20.93%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3725 Blooming Prairie Dr 0.13mi 4/2.0 2,625 (-7%) 0mo $340,139 $130 80
3916 Melica Ln 0.23mi 4/2.0 2,625 (-7%) 2mo $349,967 $133 73
3350 Blazing Star Dr 0.22mi 4/3.5 2,663 (-6%) 3mo $399,000 $150 73
4005 Allred Dr 0.37mi 4/2.0 2,646 (-6%) 2mo $399,500 $151 68
4105 Maize Ave 0.18mi 4/3.0 2,483 (-12%) 2mo $469,990 $189 67
4146 Beale St 0.27mi 4/2.5 2,495 (-12%) 2mo $389,260 $156 66
3732 Topeka Trl 0.18mi 4/3.0 2,454 (-13%) 2mo $379,000 $154 66
3940 Allred Dr 0.38mi 4/3.0 2,599 (-8%) 2mo $402,205 $155 64
4149 Beale St 0.25mi 4/3.5 2,480 (-12%) 2mo $390,000 $157 62
3922 Hometown Blvd 0.53mi 4/3.0 2,620 (-8%) 4mo $499,990 $191 57
3834 Belleview Pl 0.39mi 3/2.5 (-1) 2,463 (-13%) 1mo $399,405 $162 54
3310 Tanseyleaf Dr 0.71mi 4/3.5 2,644 (-7%) 2mo $319,000 $121 50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-28.8%
Equity multiple
0.04×
Total profit
$-112,105
Equity at exit
$62,230
10-year hold
IRR
-28.5%
Equity multiple
-0.32×
Total profit
$-154,770
Equity at exit
$36,086

Cash invested: $116,861 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
156 active · 30 under contract
Months of supply
19.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$364,706 ($150/sqft)
Median days on market
70 d
This list price
16% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

Home prices YoY
-26.7%
Active inventory
956
Price-to-rent
9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,766 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,189
Tax est. 1.5%
$522 /mo · $6,260/yr
Insurance
$174
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$581
Net cashflow
$-699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,651
Max offer price $316,225
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-411 -5% $-555 +0% $-699 +5% $-843 +10% $-987
Rent -10% $-917 -5% $-808 +0% $-699 +5% $-590 +10% $-480
Rate -1.0pp $-489 -0.5pp $-593 base $-699 +0.5pp $-807 +1.0pp $-917

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$104,341
Closing costs
$12,521
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 29 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3829 Walnut Creek Dr Crandall, TX 4.0 3.0 2370 $3,100 $1.31 0d 1 0.16mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX 5.0 3.0 2730 $3,300 $1.21 43d 1 0.34mi
3630 Pendleton Ct Forney, TX 4.0 3.0 2334 $2,800 $1.20 3d 1 0.35mi
3811 Thomas Plns Dr Crandall, TX 4.0 3.0 2728 $2,600 $0.95 37d 1 0.36mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX 4.0 3.0 2232 $3,100 $1.39 17d 1 0.42mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX 4.0 3.0 2403 $3,100 $1.29 43d 1 0.42mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX 4.0 2.5 2278 $2,550 $1.12 31d 1 0.43mi
3936 Bellingham Ln Forney, TX 4.0 2.0 1938 $2,100 $1.08 32d 1 0.43mi
2915 Acacia Dr Forney, TX 4.0 2.5 1982 $2,400 $1.21 8d 1 0.49mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX 4.0 2.0 1938 $2,300 $1.19 53d 1 0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX 4.0 3.5 2885 $2,675 $0.93 37d 1 0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX 4.0 3.5 2885 $2,675 $0.93 43d 1 0.50mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX 4.0 3.5 2885 $2,750 $0.95 59d 1 0.50mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX 4.0 3.0 2177 $2,700 $1.24 92d 1 0.55mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX 3.0 2.5 2051 $2,350 $1.15 64d 1 0.72mi
3916 Ford Dr Heartland, TX 4.0 3.0 2484 $2,600 $1.05 70d 1 0.76mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX 4.0 2.0 2135 $2,250 $1.05 68d 1 0.77mi
3948 Mercedes Bnd Forney, TX 5.0 3.0 2892 $2,700 $0.93 41d 1 0.80mi
4005 Indian Paintbrush Ln Forney, TX 4.0 2.5 2866 $2,700 $0.94 62d 1 0.80mi
4115 Indian Paintbrush Ln Forney, TX 4.0 3.0 2280 $2,275 $1.00 20d 1 0.85mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX 3.0 2.0 1952 $2,040 $1.05 92d 1 0.89mi
2111 Danibelle Dr Forney, TX 3.0 2.0 2144 $2,245 $1.05 15d 1 0.96mi
4400 Horsemint Cv Forney, TX 5.0 3.5 3888 $4,000 $1.03 0d 1 0.99mi
4009 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX 4.0 2.5 2515 $2,499 $0.99 92d 1 1.03mi
4003 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX 4.0 2.5 2517 $2,500 $0.99 12d 1 1.04mi
4006 Collin Ct Heartland, TX 4.0 2.5 2300 $2,700 $1.17 0d 1 1.35mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX 3.0 2.0 2315 $1,695 $0.73 38d 1 1.41mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Heartland, TX 3.0 2.5 2284 $2,300 $1.01 0d 1 1.42mi
2048 Stagecoach Trl Unit NA Forney, TX 3.0 2.5 2284 $2,295 $1.00 92d 1 1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $329,990 Active 381 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $329,990 Active 379 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $329,990 Active 378 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 377 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 376 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 373 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $329,990 Active 372 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $329,990 Active 371 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $329,990 Active 370 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $329,990 Active 368 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $329,990 Active 366 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $329,990 Active 365 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $329,990 Active 364 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $329,990 Active 363 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $329,990 Active 362 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 360 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $329,990 Active 359 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $329,990 Active 358 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $329,990 Active 357 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $329,990 Active 356 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 355 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $329,990 Active 354 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $329,990 Active 353 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $329,990 Active 352 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $329,990 Active 351 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 349 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 348 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 347 DOM
  29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $339,990 Active 346 DOM
  30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 345 DOM
  31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 344 DOM
  32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 343 DOM
  33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $339,990 Active 342 DOM
  34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $339,990 Active 341 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $339,990 Active 340 DOM
  36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 338 DOM
  37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 336 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $339,990 Active 334 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $339,990 Active 333 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $339,990 Active 330 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $339,990 Active 329 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $339,990 Active 328 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $339,990 Active 327 DOM
  44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $339,990 Active 325 DOM
  45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,990 Active 321 DOM
  46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 320 DOM
  47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 319 DOM
  48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,990 Active 316 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 315 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 314 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$33,195
− Mortgage interest
−$23,379
− Property taxes
−$6,260
− Insurance
−$2,087
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,656
− Management
−$2,656
− Depreciation
−$12,141
Taxable loss
−$15,983
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$3,836
After-tax cash flow
$-4,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in a master-planned community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates in smart home integration, security, and lighting systems.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
  • Both Smart home security system — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
  • Both Smart home lighting system — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbara Walker El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Crandall ISD
NCES district ID
4815510
Math proficiency
36% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency
42% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income
$70,076
Composite
35.57/100
National rank
#4901
State rank
#351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Heartland, TX
County
Kaufman County · 138,716 people
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
9,333
Household income
$88,013
Rent vs Own
12.7% rent · 87.3% own
Severe rent burden
5% of renters

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
138,716 people
By 2030
150,815 · +8.7%
By 2040
174,877 · +26.1%
By 2050
198,020 · +42.8%
By 2075
251,908 · +81.6%
By 2100
285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 34%
Common ancestry
Slovak 1%
Foreign-born
18% · Canada, China
Languages at home
71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

2024 margin
Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
2008→2024 swing
+7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
All cycles
2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+1.0% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-15 Relisted Zillow
  • 2026-05-15 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
  • 2026-03-06 Delisted Zillow
  • 2026-01-30 Price Changed $356,490 Zillow
  • 2025-11-06 Price Changed $346,490 Zillow
  • 2025-05-14 Listed $336,490 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…