321 NW Wintercrest Rd · Burleson, TX 76028

$157,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 8,538 sqft lot Est $246k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the heart of Burleson, TX. Nestled in a well-established neighborhood, this is a rare opportunity full of possibilities for homeowners and investors alike. Step inside to find a functional layout featuring two living rooms, offering flexible space for entertaining, relaxing, or creating a home office or media area. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and flows conveniently into the main living area. The three bedrooms offer comfortable accommodations, while the two bathrooms add everyday convenience, with one currently in the process of being prepped for renovations. Recent updates include a brand-new roof, offering peace of mind

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Brand-new roof
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• TWO LIVING ROOMS
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Standard listing conditions; Subdivision: Summercrest
• Financial info: Listing terms include cash and conventional financing; No second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with inside entrance; Two covered parking spaces; Garage faces front; Concrete driveway; Alley access; Lighted parking area
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Cable available; Asphalt and concrete streets with curbs
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; 1965 construction
• Construction: Brick and wood construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Storage; Chain link fence; Few trees; Large backyard with grass; Interior lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with built-in desk and ensuite bath; Secondary bedroom with built-in cabinets
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Two living areas; One dining area; Nine total rooms; One level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry located in garage; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mound El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 32% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,856
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 NW Wintercrest Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$157,900	$127	99
125 NW Jill Ann Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-1%)	1mo	$220,000	$177	84
913 Jayellen Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,265 (+1%)	0mo	$249,000	$197	82
120 NW Suzanne Ter	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+5%)	2mo	$245,000	$187	75
341 NW Summercrest Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,343 (+8%)	2mo	$263,000	$196	73
716 Nicole Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	1mo	$209,900	$175	72
133 NW Jill Ann Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+8%)	2mo	$260,000	$193	72
941 Willow Cir S	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-9%)	2mo	$255,000	$225	69
800 Crestview Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,353 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$203	67
845 Willow Cir N	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,135 (-9%)	1mo	$257,000	$226	67
1013 Darren Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-1%)	1mo	$249,900	$202	66
520 NW Charlyne Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+3%)	2mo	$274,000	$214	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,693
• Equity at exit: $23,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,657
• Equity at exit: $13,652

Cash invested: $44,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,213/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $157,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,475
• Closing costs: $4,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
213 NW Jayellen Ave Burleson, TX	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	0.13mi
716 SW Sunset Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,725	$1.69	43d	1	0.29mi
900 Vaughn Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	43d	1	0.30mi
912 Vaughn Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	17d	1	0.31mi
621 Barkridge Trl Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	12d	1	0.39mi
128 Meador Ln Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	947	$1,500	$1.58	43d	1	0.43mi
105 SE Gardens Blvd Apt 108 Burleson, TX	2.0	1.5	1019	$1,425	$1.40	24d	1	0.49mi
105 SE Gardens Blvd Apt 112 Burleson, TX	2.0	1.5	1019	$1,425	$1.40	7d	1	0.50mi
155 Elk Dr Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,797	$1.56	1d	6	0.65mi
745 W Hidden Creek Pkwy Burleson, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1059	$1,679	$1.58	1d	6	0.72mi
634 Lisa St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,845	$1.49	24d	1	0.75mi
100 Arnold Ave Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,095	$1.46	22d	1	0.75mi
NW Summercrest Blvd Burleson, TX	3.0	1.5	1085	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	0.76mi
207 Stefanie St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,695	$1.48	24d	1	0.76mi
926 Irene St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,675	$1.12	24d	1	0.78mi
812 NW Summercrest Blvd Apt B Burleson, TX	3.0	1.5	1085	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	0.89mi
724 Sue Ann Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,795	$1.60	43d	1	0.89mi
772 Hampshire Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,350	$1.94	43d	1	0.95mi
1015 Tyler James Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	15d	1	0.96mi
428 Tinker Trl Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1329	$1,735	$1.31	17d	1	0.97mi
285 SE John Jones Dr Burleson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,154	$1.97	1d	16	0.97mi
1045 Mitchell Ln Unit 1045 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	18d	1	0.97mi
804 Sheryn Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,890	$1.45	43d	1	1.05mi
1008 Rock Springs Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,995	$1.36	43d	1	1.08mi
112 SW Murphy Rd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,850	$1.53	2d	1	1.14mi
1633 Greenridge Dr Burleson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,740	$1.84	2d	27	1.16mi
344 NW Renfro St Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,580	$1.54	24d	1	1.20mi
109 SW Cindy Ln Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	43d	1	1.22mi
1356 SW Alsbury Blvd Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	994	$1,675	$1.69	43d	1	1.25mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Unit 1387 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,438	$1.33	2d	1	1.27mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Unit 1383 Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,823	$1.49	2d	1	1.27mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Unit 1407 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,436	$1.33	43d	1	1.27mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,842	$1.71	12d	1	1.27mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,636	$2.15	20d	1	1.27mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,433	$1.98	1d	1	1.27mi
1350 SW Alsbury Blvd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$2,127	$1.73	43d	1	1.27mi
532 NW King St Burleson, TX	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	43d	1	1.31mi
609 NW Lorna St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,800	$1.30	43d	1	1.39mi
1626 SW Wilshire Blvd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,925	$1.39	7d	1	1.46mi
1650 Candler Dr Burleson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,699	$1.90	2d	63	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $157,900 Active
3. 2025-10-07
   soldstatus
4. 1988-06-21
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,213 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,213 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,845
• − Property taxes: −$3,213
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$4,593
• Taxable income: $2,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $3,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burleson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,349
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3818
• State rank: #236 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $157,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,213 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.