4807 Forest Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$223,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1984 2,378 sqft lot $127/sqft · 15% below area Est $263k · 15% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love calling this Awesome, Two-Story, Quiet Location home! The lovely space was recently updated and remodeled with Quartz countertops and New Kitchen Cabinets. Kitchen appliances, an added pantry, and black modern accent faucets/fixtures were added as well. Roof is three years old along with siding, fencing, and flooring through-out. Fireplace was remodeled and the new look of the Master Suite includes double vanities in the bath, granite counters, cedar closet and glass sliding door. An additional cedar closet and half bath (new plumbing/sewer line) added to the first floor living space. The garage space was included in the remodel along with a new garage door and water heater. You will enjoy the second level as it provides great flexibility including game room/media room space, as well as potential office space. Outdoor entertaining or relaxing can be enjoyed on the spacious decking/patio space just off of the kitchen. Don't miss this unique opportunity!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Remodeled fireplace
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• ADDED PANTRY
• BLACK MODERN ACCENT FAUCETS
• THREE YEARS OLD ROOF
• REMODELED FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $223k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carver El (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 636 students, 91% FRL); Baytown J H (math 35% / reading 29%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 743 students, 83% FRL); Lee H S (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,845 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 61% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 624 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $223k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,276
• List price: $223,000
• Delta: -15.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3930 Hawaiian Ct	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (-2%)	2mo	$264,900	$154	82
3926 Hybrid Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+1%)	9mo	$255,000	$144	79
3914 Egyptian Goose Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (+1%)	2mo	$269,900	$152	76
2939 Canadian Goose Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,847 (+6%)	1mo	$273,000	$148	73
4800 Oak Hollow St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-15%)	2mo	$149,999	$101	67
3218 Specklebelly Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+2%)	6mo	$250,000	$139	66
5108 Somerset Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-2%)	5mo	$278,000	$162	61
4517 Coachman Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+0%)	11mo	$230,000	$131	59
5004 Fairway Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+5%)	8mo	$210,000	$114	57
4019 Spurwing Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-15%)	1mo	$230,000	$154	56
3206 Woodstone Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-7%)	2mo	$267,000	$164	53
5004 Somerset Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,986 (+13%)	12mo	$180,000	$91	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-22,369
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,490
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,492 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,705/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,146

Max offer price $223,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $336	+0% $273	+5% $210	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $175	+0% $273	+5% $371	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $385	-0.5pp $330	base $273	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3400 Shady Hill Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$3,295	$3.25	0d	21	0.14mi
2800 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,775	$1.80	0d	27	0.88mi
5406 Carousel Cir Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,761	$1.11	45d	1	0.98mi
5405 Shirley St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,703	$1.04	26d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $223,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $223,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $223,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-01-22
    listed $223,000 Active 980-char remark

    Show marketing remark (980 chars)

    You will love calling this Awesome, Two-Story, Quiet Location home! The lovely space was recently updated and remodeled with Quartz countertops and New Kitchen Cabinets. Kitchen appliances, an added pantry, and black modern accent faucets/fixtures were added as well. Roof is three years old along with siding, fencing, and flooring through-out. Fireplace was remodeled and the new look of the Master Suite includes double vanities in the bath, granite counters, cedar closet and glass sliding door. An additional cedar closet and half bath (new plumbing/sewer line) added to the first floor living space. The garage space was included in the remodel along with a new garage door and water heater. You will enjoy the second level as it provides great flexibility including game room/media room space, as well as potential office space. Outdoor entertaining or relaxing can be enjoyed on the spacious decking/patio space just off of the kitchen. Don't miss this unique opportunity!

15. 2022-03-09
    soldstatus
16. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus Sold 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

17. 2022-02-18
    status Pending 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

18. 2022-02-06
    status Option Pending 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

19. 2022-01-30
    status Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

20. 2022-01-22
    status Pending 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

21. 2022-01-10
    status Option Pending 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

22. 2022-01-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

23. 2022-01-05
    listed $215,000 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (732 chars)

    Fantastic two-story single family home located in Baytown TX! This property has all new interior/exterior paint. Brand New kitchen with Quartz countertops, Brand New cabinets, modern black accent faucet fixtures, all new kitchen appliances and an added pantry for additional storage. New foundation with warranty certificate. New roof, new siding, new fencing, new flooring throughout. Remodeled fireplace, completely remodeled master bathroom featuring glass sliding door, double sinks and granite countertops. Two cedar closets, one in master bathroom and one in hallway. Completely remodeled garage, new garage door, new water heater. Half bathroom added on main floor and much more! Some photos have been virtually staged.

24. 2022-01-04
    price $215,000
25. 2022-01-04
    status Active
26. 2021-12-20
    historical
27. 2021-12-03
    price $219,900
28. 2021-11-01
    price $224,900
29. 2021-10-18
    price $235,000
30. 2021-10-18
    status Active
31. 2021-10-06
    historical
32. 2021-10-06
    listed $239,999 Active
33. 2021-04-22
    soldstatus
34. 2021-04-01
    soldstatus
35. 2007-08-28
    soldstatus
36. 1998-11-10
    soldstatus
37. 1998-11-01
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,705 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,705 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥109°F today · 1 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$4,705
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $3,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+248.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $223,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-02-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-01-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-05 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-01-04 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2022-01-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-12-03 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2021-11-01 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2021-10-18 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-06 Listed $239,999 HARMLS
• 2021-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,705 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.