40614 Balsam Run Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,050 sqft lot $184/sqft · 7% below area Est $263k · 7% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WONDERFUL BRAND NEW D.R. Horton Home in Mill Creek! Single-story floor plan offers the perfect blend of space and comfort. Designed for modern living. The heart of the home is the open breakfast/family area seamlessly connected to the kitchen, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere for family gatherings and entertaining friends. Gorgeous modern designer features included! 3 spacious bedrooms! Step outside and relax on the back patio, overlooking the fully sodded yard. But that's not all – this home is equipped with a Smart Home package, adding convenience and style to your daily life. Experience the ease of controlling your home's features at your fingertips. Don't miss the opportunity! Ready for move in Summer 2026!

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Fully sodded yard
• Back patio

Tags

• OPEN BREAKFAST FAMILY AREA
• BACK PATIO
• FULLY SODDED YARD
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,290 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.73%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,039
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -6.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,328 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	98
40731 Barley Straw	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+11%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	75
40025 Mill Creek Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,437 (+8%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$765	70
14537 Montclair Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+11%)	11mo	$243,500	$166	57
40530 Tyto Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+10%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	54
15219 Black Scoter Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+10%)	7mo	$279,900	$191	54
40511 Tyto Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+12%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	53
40423 Gerygone Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+10%)	9mo	$289,900	$198	50
15053 Cherry Creek Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+7%)	8mo	$275,490	$195	50
40414 Gerygone Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+10%)	11mo	$269,900	$184	48
15049 Cherry Creek Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+13%)	9mo	$281,390	$187	38
15070 Cherry Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+13%)	11mo	$271,490	$181	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $133,643
• Equity at exit: $220,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $377,551
• Equity at exit: $475,962

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,223

Max offer price $244,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $184	+0% $99	+5% $14	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $6	+0% $99	+5% $192	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $161	base $99	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.25mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.43mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.45mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	45d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $244,990 Active Under Contract 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $244,990 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $249,990 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    WONDERFUL BRAND NEW D.R. Horton Home in Mill Creek! Single-story floor plan offers the perfect blend of space and comfort. Designed for modern living. The heart of the home is the open breakfast/family area seamlessly connected to the kitchen, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere for family gatherings and entertaining friends. Gorgeous modern designer features included! 3 spacious bedrooms! Step outside and relax on the back patio, overlooking the fully sodded yard. But that's not all – this home is equipped with a Smart Home package, adding convenience and style to your daily life. Experience the ease of controlling your home's features at your fingertips. Don't miss the opportunity! Ready for move in Summer 2026!

16. 2026-04-11
    listed $260,990 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    WONDERFUL BRAND NEW D.R. Horton Home in Mill Creek! Single-story floor plan offers the perfect blend of space and comfort. Designed for modern living. The heart of the home is the open breakfast/family area seamlessly connected to the kitchen, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere for family gatherings and entertaining friends. Gorgeous modern designer features included! 3 spacious bedrooms! Step outside and relax on the back patio, overlooking the fully sodded yard. But that's not all – this home is equipped with a Smart Home package, adding convenience and style to your daily life. Experience the ease of controlling your home's features at your fingertips. Don't miss the opportunity! Ready for move in Summer 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$2,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $1,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new D.R. Horton home in Mill Creek offers modern design and features, making it move-in ready with no immediate repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home package — Enhances convenience and style, attracting both buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves the home's aesthetic and first impression.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home package — Enhances convenience and style, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves the home's aesthetic and first impression. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $260,990 HARMLS