10259 Forest Springs Drive Plan · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$209,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INTERIOR PHOTOS COMING SOON! Located near a cul-de-sac in a quiet section of the community, this home offers added privacy with open space behind and a peaceful environment where local wildlife can often be seen. Inside, the home features white kitchen cabinetry, Samsung kitchen appliances, a kitchen island, and a dedicated laundry room. A covered front porch adds to the home s charm and provides a welcoming outdoor space. This new Clayton home SNSAC040372CAAA/B is offered by Sun Homes, DL#1288841. Price does not include charges for escrow, title, and registration, sales tax, or home prep fee. * sf approximate. Residency requirements apply. * Images and descriptions are based on a similar m

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Kitchen island
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETRY
• SAMSUNG KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $209,995

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan at 10259 Forest Springs Drive; Located in Grass Valley, CA

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan home (new construction plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,795 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $83,616
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10204 Stone Arch Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	12mo	$89,000	$71	80
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	80
10096 Daisy King Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	7mo	$27,500	$23	78
10088 Heritage Oak Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+3%)	9mo	$219,000	$171	78
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,337 (+7%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	71
10235 Forest Springs Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+4%)	17mo	$63,000	$49	64
10186 Stone Arch Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+12%)	10mo	$87,500	$63	63
14338 State Highway 49 #65	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-4%)	6mo	$75,000	$63	62
10070 Dalewood Way	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-8%)	4mo	$130,000	$113	57
13927 Meda Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+10%)	1mo	$140,000	$102	52
13948 Golden Star Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-11%)	8mo	$139,900	$126	46
14338 State Highway 49 #67	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-15%)	2mo	$54,900	$52	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,958
• Equity at exit: $31,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $39,693
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $209,995

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $648	-5% $576	+0% $503	+5% $430	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $405	+0% $503	+5% $601	+10% $698
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $556	base $503	+0.5pp $449	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,499
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,995 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,995 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,995 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,995 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,995 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,995 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,995 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,995 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,995 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,995 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,995 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,995 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,995 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,995 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,995 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,995 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,375
• − Management: −$2,375
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $2,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$687
• After-tax cash flow: $5,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B