8840 N 8840 Princeton Rd · Gracey, KY 42215

$37,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks

Selling As-Is, this fixer-upper 1988 (980 sq ft) single-wide home sits beautifully on 2.7 acres outside of the city limits with a country feel. Located Less Than 5 miles From Hopkinsville And very close To Pennyrile State Resort Park, LBL, Kentucky Lake, and Lake Barkley. Great to keep as a lake getaway/fishing spot or even rent out. There Is Meat on the bones - Home needs a few repairs, updates, and improvements. Has a 2-car garage. Power has been off for over 5 years; it will need a Safety Inspection. Sweat Equity Opportunity - Priced Right for Someone to Flip It or for Someone Who wants to put in a little elbow grease to have for their next home.

Key facts

• Lake getaway
• Safety inspection
• Fixer-upper

Tags

• FIXER-UPPER
• LAKE GETAWAY
• SAFETY INSPECTION
• SWEAT EQUITY OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $631 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#538 in KY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($259 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,375 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.12%
• DSCR: 4.21
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $51,738
• Equity at exit: $24,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.48×
• Total profit: $120,533
• Equity at exit: $44,823

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42215

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $202/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $631

Break-even live

Break-even rent $290

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-19
   status Pending
3. 2025-10-19
   soldstatus Closed
4. 2025-08-25
   listed $37,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $202 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $322 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$121/yr (+$10/mo · 60.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$202
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,045
• − Management: −$1,045
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $7,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $5,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Christian County
• NCES district ID: 2101150
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,961
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7118
• State rank: #93 of 165 in KY

Livability — Gracey

• Score: 37/100
• State rank: #538
• US rank: #27613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,692

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,861 people
• By 2030: 65,808 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 60,090 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 54,561 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 45,859 · -32.4%
• By 2100: 38,310 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 21% Asian 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.6) · D 32.6% · R 66.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -33.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.6 2020: R+28.4 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Current HPI: 342.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Pending — HCTCBOR
• 2025-10-19 Pending — HCTCBOR
• 2025-10-19 Sold (MLS) — HCTCBOR
• 2025-08-25 Listed $37,500 HCTCBOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $202 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.