72350 Forest Dr · Covington, LA 70433

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 0.46 ac lot Est $250k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath property situated on nearly half an acre! Enjoy the perfect blend of country living and convenience, just minutes from shopping, I-12, and local hospitals. This well-maintained home features a carpet-free interior, stainless steel kitchen appliances, and includes the washer and dryer. Outside, you'll find a beautiful mature oak tree, plenty of parking, and a spacious patio perfect for entertaining family and friends. Three storage sheds provide plenty of room for tools, equipment, and hobbies. No HOA and located in a preferred flood zone. Don't miss this opportunity to own a property with space, storage, and convenience all in one!

Key facts

• Three storage sheds
• Preferred flood zone
• Mature oak tree

Tags

• CARPET FREE INTERIOR
• MATURE OAK TREE
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• THREE STORAGE SHEDS
• NO HOA
• PREFERRED FLOOD ZONE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale with cosmetic and kitchen updates
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Raised foundation; Built/updated as resale property (cosmetic, paint, kitchen updates)
• Exterior features: Porch; Wood porch; Shed(s); Outside city limits; Oversized lot; Lot dimensions approximately 95 x 205 x 100 x 205

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Pull-down attic stairs; Stainless steel appliances; Cable TV; Screens on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $225k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,300 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,500
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Hickory Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,453 (-3%)	10mo	$250,000	$172	54
72323 Sunset Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (+14%)	24mo	$285,000	$167	40
8 Spruce Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (+11%)	14mo	$250,000	$150	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,634
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $25,470
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70433

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,703

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $380	+0% $316	+5% $252	+10% $188
Rent	-10% $150	-5% $233	+0% $316	+5% $399	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $429	-0.5pp $373	base $316	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72291 Forest Dr Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	44d	1	0.07mi
538 Moore Blvd Covington, LA	4.0	2.0	1948	$2,150	$1.10	24d	1	0.80mi
15568 Madris Ln Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,825	$1.14	20d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 688-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$375/yr (+$31/mo · 43.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $62
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 41,876
• Household income: $81,241
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 17% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.14%
• Current HPI: 181.8348
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+45.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $225,000 GSREIN
• 2014-01-10 Sold (MLS) $142,000 GSREIN
• 2013-11-20 Listed $154,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-11-20 Listed $154,500 GSREIN

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $862 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.