3101 Summerhill Pl · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$56,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Condo public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1986 $119/sqft · 8% above area Est $52k · 8% over $300/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURN Key Studio Condo ready to start enjoying your vacation or rentals are allowed as well. Everything with the condo stays, furniture, appliances, linens , etc. Fairfield Bay has tennis courts, pickle ball courts, bike trails, two golf courses, ATV trails, disc golf, 3 swimming pools, bowling alley, & restaurants all within the community. Condo dues - $98/month (includes Termite Contract, exterior maintenance, & comes with one parking space) & FFB community club dues - $202/month (includes city sewer , trash pickup, access to the 3 pools, playground, tennis courts/picklball courts, basketball court, & ATV trails). Condo is located on the 2nd story.

Key facts

• Pickle ball courts
• Disc golf
• Tennis courts

Tags

• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLE BALL COURTS
• BIKE TRAILS
• GOLF COURSES
• ATV TRAILS
• DISC GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shirley Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #419 of 454 statewide, top 93%, 180 students, 100% FRL); Shirley High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 139 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 43% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shirley School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $120 of equity ($387 loan paydown + $-267 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $49,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.36%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,973
• List price: $56,000
• Delta: 7.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $26,734
• Equity at exit: $14,939

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $67,901
• Equity at exit: $16,935

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $449/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $828

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $478	+0% $462	+5% $446	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $406	+0% $462	+5% $518	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $490	-0.5pp $476	base $462	+0.5pp $448	+1.0pp $433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: sewertrashexterior maint.pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $56,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $56,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $56,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $56,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $56,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,000 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,000 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,000 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-01-01
    listed $56,000 New Listing 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    TURN Key Studio Condo ready to start enjoying your vacation or rentals are allowed as well. Everything with the condo stays, furniture, appliances, linens , etc. Fairfield Bay has tennis courts, pickle ball courts, bike trails, two golf courses, ATV trails, disc golf, 3 swimming pools, bowling alley, & restaurants all within the community. Condo dues - $98/month (includes Termite Contract, exterior maintenance, & comes with one parking space) & FFB community club dues - $202/month (includes city sewer , trash pickup, access to the 3 pools, playground, tennis courts/picklball courts, basketball court, & ATV trails). Condo is located on the 2nd story.

19. 2026-01-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    TURN Key Studio Condo ready to start enjoying your vacation or rentals are allowed as well. Everything with the condo stays, furniture, appliances, linens , etc. Fairfield Bay has tennis courts, pickle ball courts, bike trails, two golf courses, ATV trails, disc golf, 3 swimming pools, bowling alley, & restaurants all within the community. Condo dues - $98/month (includes Termite Contract, exterior maintenance, & comes with one parking space) & FFB community club dues - $202/month (includes city sewer , trash pickup, access to the 3 pools, playground, tennis courts/picklball courts, basketball court, & ATV trails). Condo is located on the 2nd story.

20. 2025-07-09
    price $56,000
21. 2025-06-25
    price $58,900
22. 2025-05-22
    listed $59,900 New Listing
23. 2025-05-14
    historical
24. 2025-01-15
    listed $59,900 New Listing
25. 2025-01-01
    historical
26. 2024-11-08
    price $59,900
27. 2024-10-02
    listed $64,000 New Listing
28. 2024-08-01
    historical
29. 2024-07-20
    price $64,000
30. 2024-06-27
    listed $65,000 New Listing
31. 2024-01-04
    soldstatus $58,500
32. 2021-10-18
    soldstatus $29,900
33. 2021-05-06
    soldstatus $21,000
34. 1999-12-16
    soldstatus $21,000
35. 1999-10-22
    soldstatus $7,000
36. 1997-08-29
    soldstatus $14,105

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $449 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$449
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $5,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $4,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+297.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $56,000 CARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $56,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $58,900 CARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed $64,000 CARMLS
• 2024-08-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $64,000 CARMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $65,000 CARMLS
• 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 2021-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 2021-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $14,105 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $449 · +149.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.