16034 Holz Dr #16 · Southgate, MI 48195

$109,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1995 $162/sqft · 18% above area Est $93k · 18% over $171/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful ranch condo in Southgate. Newly remodeled bathroom. Freshly painted. New flooring throughout entire condo. Location of condo affords privacy. Kitchen layout ready for a chef. Condo life is calling you in this affordable well kept complex. Come see it before you miss out!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Kitchen layout
• $171 HOA

Tags

• NEWLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN LAYOUT
• AFFORDABLE WELL KEPT COMPLEX

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.2% in Southgate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in MI, #582 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-.
• Southgate Community School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #379 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $757 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 21 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $110k implies a 544% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $107,857 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.68%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,799
• List price: $109,500
• Delta: 18.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20264 Pennsylvania Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0	576 (-15%)	17mo	$95,000	$165	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $8,012
• Equity at exit: $16,327

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $45,532
• Equity at exit: $9,468

Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48195

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,642 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $109,500

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,375
• Closing costs: $3,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15027 Brookview Dr Riverview, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	1020	$1,499	$1.47	1d	34	1.01mi
13750 Village Green Blvd Southgate, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	862	$1,625	$1.88	1d	9	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Beautiful ranch condo in Southgate. Newly remodeled bathroom. Freshly painted. New flooring throughout entire condo. Location of condo affords privacy. Kitchen layout ready for a chef. Condo life is calling you in this affordable well kept complex. Come see it before you miss out!

2. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Beautiful ranch condo in Southgate. Newly remodeled bathroom. Freshly painted. New flooring throughout entire condo. Location of condo affords privacy. Kitchen layout ready for a chef. Condo life is calling you in this affordable well kept complex. Come see it before you miss out!

3. 2026-04-19
   listed $109,500 Active 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Beautiful ranch condo in Southgate. Newly remodeled bathroom. Freshly painted. New flooring throughout entire condo. Location of condo affords privacy. Kitchen layout ready for a chef. Condo life is calling you in this affordable well kept complex. Come see it before you miss out!

4. 2026-04-19
   listed $109,500 Active 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Beautiful ranch condo in Southgate. Newly remodeled bathroom. Freshly painted. New flooring throughout entire condo. Location of condo affords privacy. Kitchen layout ready for a chef. Condo life is calling you in this affordable well kept complex. Come see it before you miss out!

5. 2010-08-20
   soldstatus $17,000
6. 2010-07-23
   historical
7. 2010-07-23
   historical
8. 2010-07-22
   historical
9. 2010-07-19
   listed $15,000
10. 2010-05-30
    listed $23,900
11. 2010-04-22
    listed $19,900
12. 2010-04-22
    listed $19,900
13. 2010-03-08
    historical
14. 2009-12-08
    listed $29,900
15. 2009-12-08
    listed $24,900
16. 2007-09-28
    historical
17. 2007-09-28
    historical
18. 2007-03-28
    listed $64,999
19. 2007-03-28
    listed $64,999
20. 2007-03-28
    historical
21. 2007-03-28
    historical
22. 2007-03-28
    historical
23. 2006-09-28
    listed $66,900
24. 2006-09-28
    listed $66,900
25. 2006-09-28
    listed $66,900
26. 2006-09-28
    historical
27. 2006-09-28
    historical
28. 2006-09-28
    historical
29. 2006-03-28
    listed $68,900
30. 2006-03-28
    listed $68,900
31. 2006-03-28
    listed $68,900
32. 2006-03-28
    historical
33. 2006-03-28
    historical
34. 2006-03-28
    historical
35. 2005-11-27
    listed $69,999
36. 2005-11-27
    listed $69,999
37. 2005-11-27
    listed $69,999
38. 2004-05-06
    soldstatus $65,000
39. 2004-05-06
    soldstatus $65,000
40. 2004-04-07
    soldstatus $65,000
41. 2004-04-07
    soldstatus $65,000
42. 2004-03-18
    historical
43. 2003-12-10
    listed $69,900
44. 2003-12-10
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,574 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,134
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$3,185
• Taxable income: $3,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$734
• After-tax cash flow: $3,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southgate Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2632340
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,234
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7591
• State rank: #379 of 540 in MI

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 29,366
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 29,366
• Household income: $66,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.28%
• Current HPI: 207.9776
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+56.7% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-19 Listed $109,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-19 Listed $109,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-08-20 Sold (MLS) $17,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-07-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-07-23 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-07-22 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-07-19 Listed $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-05-30 Listed $23,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-04-22 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-04-22 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-03-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-12-08 Listed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-12-08 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2007-09-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-03-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-03-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-03-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-03-28 Listed $64,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-03-28 Listed $64,999 REALCOMP
• 2006-09-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-09-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-09-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-09-28 Listed $66,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-09-28 Listed $66,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-09-28 Listed $66,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-03-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2006-03-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-28 Listed $68,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-03-28 Listed $68,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-03-28 Listed $68,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-11-27 Listed $69,999 REALCOMP
• 2005-11-27 Listed $69,999 REALCOMP
• 2005-11-27 Listed $69,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-04-07 Sold (MLS) $65,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-03-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-12-10 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-12-10 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,574 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.