309 Willow · San Antonio, TX 78202

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1925 7,501 sqft lot $130/sqft · 38% below area Est $364k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors are welcome. Located in developed and Historic community. Very good investment and its AS-IS. come and see it your self. Close to downtown and and easy access to highways.

Key facts

• Historic community
• Close to downtown
• 7,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• HISTORIC COMMUNITY
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,891/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 543% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,063 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,793
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -38.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
922 N Pine	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,820 (+5%)	4mo	$439,000	$241	77
8543 Willow Xing	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,692 (-2%)	3mo	$205,999	$122	73
8523 Willow Xing	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,692 (-2%)	3mo	$195,999	$116	72
1502 Nolan St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-6%)	1mo	$345,000	$212	68
1323 Nolan	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-10%)	2mo	$349,000	$225	65
502 Sherman	0.33mi	3/3.0	1,531 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$229	59
423 N Mesquite St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,925 (+11%)	1mo	$399,990	$208	59
915 Saint James	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-14%)	2mo	$311,500	$209	58
1108 Center St	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,628 (-6%)	3mo	$324,000	$199	55
2235 E Houston	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,556 (-10%)	3mo	$110,000	$71	46
1618 Olive Ibis	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (-9%)	1mo	$250,950	$160	45
414 Canton	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,899 (+10%)	3mo	$230,000	$121	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $121,124
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $390,698
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78202

• Home prices YoY: 27.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,808/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $193,075

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Burnet St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1886	$1,995	$1.06	4d	1	0.05mi
1018 N Olive St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	43d	1	0.23mi
511 N Monumental San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1206	$1,595	$1.32	4d	1	0.24mi
118 Canadian St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	43d	1	0.26mi
1225 Burnet St Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,850	$1.52	43d	1	0.26mi
821 Burleson San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1456	$1,629	$1.12	43d	1	0.28mi
115 Saint Charles San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,050	$1.22	10d	1	0.30mi
1223 Hays St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,495	$1.38	23d	1	0.37mi
603 N Mesquite St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,750	$1.31	23d	1	0.38mi
1102 Burleson San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	23d	1	0.38mi
515 Nolan St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1928	$3,500	$1.82	43d	1	0.41mi
431 N Mesquite St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,750	$1.43	14d	1	0.41mi
423 N Mesquite St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1925	$1,750	$0.91	12d	1	0.41mi
704 N Cherry St Unit 704 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	43d	1	0.42mi
155 Canton San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,250	$1.16	23d	1	0.46mi
1412 Hays St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	23d	1	0.52mi
1615 Nolan St Unit A San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1066	$1,400	$1.31	10d	1	0.52mi
631 Potomac San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$1,797	$0.97	23d	1	0.55mi
723 Paso Hondo San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	43d	1	0.60mi
1414 Burleson San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	43d	1	0.67mi
418 Lockhart St Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1479	$1,590	$1.08	43d	1	0.68mi
418 Lockhart San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1479	$1,799	$1.22	21d	1	0.68mi
1707 Dawson St Unit 1101 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	1884	$1,000	$0.53	43d	1	0.70mi
811 Montana St Unit 1301 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,800	$1.45	43d	1	0.71mi
215 Center St #307 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1424	$2,350	$1.65	19d	1	0.71mi
215 Center St #307 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1424	$2,350	$1.65	23d	1	0.71mi
239 Center St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,750	$2.08	1d	18	0.71mi
1607 N Pine St San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2034	$2,995	$1.47	43d	1	0.71mi
802 Montana St Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	10d	1	0.73mi
323 Gabriel San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	21d	1	0.73mi
323 Gabriel Unit 1 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,950	$1.39	23d	1	0.73mi
2332 E Houston St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,550	$0.94	23d	1	0.74mi
630 Montana St Unit 301 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,250	$1.70	14d	1	0.74mi
1021 N Alamo St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1202	$2,000	$1.66	43d	1	0.74mi
1606 N Hackberry St #102 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1474	$2,500	$1.70	10d	1	0.74mi
1723 E Crockett St San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1819	$1,800	$0.99	23d	1	0.75mi
1727 E Crockett St San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1819	$1,725	$0.95	19d	1	0.76mi
452 Gulf San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1244	$1,899	$1.53	21d	1	0.76mi
210 Piedmont Ave Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1050	$1,395	$1.33	43d	1	0.77mi
1104 N Gevers St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1276	$1,725	$1.35	43d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-02-19
    listed $225,000 New 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Investors are welcome. Located in developed and Historic community. Very good investment and its AS-IS. come and see it your self. Close to downtown and and easy access to highways.

15. 2011-09-13
    soldstatus 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

16. 2011-09-13
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

17. 2011-09-13
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

18. 2011-08-08
    historical 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

19. 2011-08-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

20. 2011-07-11
    listed $35,000 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

21. 2011-07-11
    listed $35,000

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    1,838 sq. ft. home located in the Dignowity Hill Historical area. Currently being used as a duplex. Originally built as a single family home and could easily be converted back to its historical charm. Back yard has potential to build a garage or add an addition. Home needs work. Priced 29K below Bexar Apprasial District!!!

22. 2008-09-18
    historical
23. 2008-09-18
    historical
24. 2008-03-18
    listed $60,000
25. 2008-03-18
    listed $60,000
26. 2003-05-21
    soldstatus
27. 1977-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,808 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,808 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,808
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,224
• Household income: $47,478
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 543.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 28% White 17% Black 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.82%
• Current HPI: 253.3196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $225,000 LERA
• 2011-09-13 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-09-13 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-08-08 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-07-11 Listed $35,000 LERA
• 2011-07-11 Listed $35,000 LERA
• 2008-09-18 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2008-09-18 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2008-03-18 Listed $60,000 LERA
• 2008-03-18 Listed $60,000 LERA
• 2003-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1977-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,808 · -14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.