517 W 2nd St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$165,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,812 sqft · Other · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 2,613 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in-ready two-story home in Mount Carmel, offering room to spread out across roughly 1,812 square feet. The first floor features a living room, a separate dining room, a kitchen, a mudroom, and an office, along with a three-quarter bathroom with a walk-in shower. Upstairs you will find 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, and the floored attic adds extra storage plus a bonus room (no heat). The home runs on gas hot water heat with public water and sewer, and the roof was replaced in 2021. Out front is a yard and a porch with a view across the valley. A solid, spacious home with good bones and three bath areas across two floors. 24-hour notice required for showings. Call or text Rich at 570-

Key facts

• Walk-in-shower
• Porch
• Gas heat

Tags

• WALK-IN-SHOWER
• GAS HEAT
• FRONT YARD
• PORCH
• ATTIC WITH STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $165k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,436 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $56,067
• Equity at exit: $106,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $159,869
• Equity at exit: $196,912

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,374/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricelisting id $165,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $180,000 Active
15. 2011-10-12
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,374 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,990 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$617/yr (+$51/mo · 44.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,374
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$428
• After-tax cash flow: $1,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $180,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,374 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.