1402 W Ajo Way #99 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$63,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as a picnic area / pavilion / grill, a clubhouse, a billiards room, and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Clubhouse
• Billiards room

Tags

• PICNIC AREA
• CLUBHOUSE
• BILLIARDS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Plan name 94274; Listing modified Jun 17, 2026
• Financial info: List price $63,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec-built property; Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 1402 W Ajo Way #99, Tucson, AZ 85713

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area of 1120

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $64k).
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.71%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $25,598
• Equity at exit: $9,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $59,107
• Equity at exit: $5,525

Cash invested: $17,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$335
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $559

Max offer price $63,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $666	-5% $644	+0% $622	+5% $600	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $516	-5% $569	+0% $622	+5% $675	+10% $728
Rate	-1.0pp $654	-0.5pp $638	base $622	+0.5pp $605	+1.0pp $588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,975
• Closing costs: $1,917
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$844	$1.18	3d	4	0.11mi
3655 S San Rafael Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	44d	1	0.34mi
1074 W Pennsylvania St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,395	$1.09	15d	1	0.70mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,500	$2.26	2d	23	0.73mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	0.84mi
3601 S 16th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	523	$1,025	$1.96	44d	1	0.88mi
1808 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,395	$1.11	44d	1	0.94mi
3619 S 14th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	869	$1,410	$1.62	44d	1	0.97mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,375	$2.22	44d	10	0.98mi
673 W 41st St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	24d	1	1.08mi
1975 W 36th St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,284	$1.92	3d	1	1.09mi
3511 S 12th Ave Unit 1101 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	752	$950	$1.26	44d	1	1.15mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	12d	1	1.20mi
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	12d	2	1.21mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	44d	1	1.31mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,600	$1.17	24d	1	1.33mi
3917 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,590	$1.52	3d	1	1.34mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	24d	2	1.37mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1871SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	3d	1	1.37mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1851SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	21d	1	1.37mi
3638 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	945	$1,600	$1.69	3d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 415-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $63,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,579
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$1,859
• Taxable income: $6,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,645
• After-tax cash flow: $5,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with updates to the exterior siding, interior walls, and flooring to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor interior walls — Paint appears worn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and adds value
• Resale Update bathrooms with new fixtures and paint — Modern bathrooms attract more buyers
• Rental Upgrade HVAC system — A new HVAC system improves comfort and reduces energy costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Paint appears worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and adds value ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms with new fixtures and paint — Modern bathrooms attract more buyers ↑
• Rental Upgrade HVAC system — A new HVAC system improves comfort and reduces energy costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B