19238 Saint Green Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Newlin Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: RealManage Onsite Elevated; Community amenities include clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, and tennis courts; Association fee payable annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 10 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $260,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-606 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,856 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.36%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,490
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -17.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22202 San Lioni Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$311,990	$195	92
19307 Licola Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+6%)	0mo	$276,990	$170	90
22011 Maddaloni View Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+6%)	1mo	$296,990	$183	89
21647 Carbonari Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+6%)	1mo	$330,990	$202	86
22034 Matera Vista Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+7%)	1mo	$284,990	$174	84
21643 Carbonari Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+8%)	1mo	$333,990	$202	81
21623 Carbonari Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+8%)	1mo	$328,990	$199	81
19650 Costa Marra Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+9%)	1mo	$275,990	$165	79
19071 Cetara Villa Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+3%)	0mo	$249,990	$158	76
21639 Carbonari Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+14%)	1mo	$337,990	$193	74
22026 Matera Vista Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,759 (+14%)	1mo	$299,990	$171	67
21002 Echo Manor Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,513 (-2%)	0mo	$262,000	$173	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-95,983
• Equity at exit: $46,891

10-year hold

• IRR: -70.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.79×
• Total profit: $-158,023
• Equity at exit: $27,191

Cash invested: $88,057 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,649
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,717/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,006

Max offer price $226,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-389	-5% $-498	+0% $-606	+5% $-715	+10% $-824
Rent	-10% $-783	-5% $-695	+0% $-606	+5% $-518	+10% $-430
Rate	-1.0pp $-448	-0.5pp $-526	base $-606	+0.5pp $-688	+1.0pp $-771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,622
• Closing costs: $9,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	23d	1	0.20mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,876	$0.98	0d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	0d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	4d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	0d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $260,000 Active 585-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   price $260,000
4. 2026-04-22
   price $250,840
5. 2026-04-20
   price $250,840
6. 2026-04-17
   price $258,990
7. 2026-04-16
   price $258,990
8. 2026-03-27
   price $256,990
9. 2026-03-26
   price $256,990
10. 2026-03-22
    price $260,990
11. 2026-03-21
    price $260,990
12. 2026-02-26
    price $269,990
13. 2026-02-26
    listed $294,990 Active
14. 2026-02-25
    listed $269,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,616
• − Property taxes: −$4,717
• − Insurance: −$2,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,149
• − Management: −$2,149
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,149
• Taxable loss: −$12,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $250,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $258,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $256,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $260,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $294,990 HARMLS