2018 Fern St #304 · Urban Honolulu, HI 96826

$347,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 667 sqft · Condo public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1970 $520/sqft · 14% below area Est $403k · 14% under $702/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rarely available 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo with 1 covered parking stall in the highly desirable Moiliili. Conveniently located just minutes from world-famous Waikiki and the Ala Moana Shopping Center, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This thoughtfully designed unit features a unique layout with a separate entrance to the primary bedroom and en-suite bath — ideal for guests, or flexible living arrangements. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, UH Manoa, bus lines, and everyday essentials. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, investor, or looking for a centrally located island home, this rarely available opportunity in Moiliili is not to be missed!

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Close to bus lines
• En-suite bath

Tags

• COVERED PARKING STALL
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO BUS LINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.5% in Urban Honolulu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: King William Lunalilo Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #108 of 183 statewide, top 61%, 260 students, 64% FRL); President George Washington Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #17 of 42 statewide, top 39%, 569 students, 61% FRL); Kaimuki High School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 620 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 39% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,638 units permitted in Honolulu County in 2024 (793 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,975/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 2466% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Honolulu County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,778 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,297
• List price: $347,000
• Delta: -13.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.0% appreciation · 3.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-56,034
• Equity at exit: $83,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-53,386
• Equity at exit: $87,800

Cash invested: $97,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96826

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,820
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$702
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,607

Max offer price $258,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-401	+0% $-499	+5% $-598	+10% $-1,112
Rent	-10% $-734	-5% $-617	+0% $-499	+5% $-382	+10% $-264
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-411	base $-499	+0.5pp $-589	+1.0pp $-681

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,750
• Closing costs: $10,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1861 Kapiolani Blvd Unit C Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	525	$2,700	$5.14	23d	1	0.23mi
2333 Kapiolani Blvd Unit 1008B Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	600	$2,700	$4.50	25d	1	0.28mi
500 University Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	826	$3,200	$3.87	13d	3	0.38mi
909 Coolidge St #301 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	576	$3,950	$6.86	5d	1	0.40mi
909 Coolidge St #301 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	576	$3,050	$5.30	25d	1	0.40mi
400 Hobron Ln #2712 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	582	$2,700	$4.64	13d	1	0.41mi
555 University Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	684	$2,850	$4.17	5d	2	0.42mi
425 Ena Rd Unit 204C Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	600	$2,700	$4.50	25d	1	0.43mi
1655 Makaloa St #1510 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	500	$2,600	$5.20	23d	1	0.45mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327703P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$4,055	$11.42	13d	1	0.45mi
440 Olohana St Unit 1327711P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	355	$3,741	$10.54	3d	1	0.45mi
475 Atkinson Dr Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	25d	2	0.46mi
475 Atkinson Dr Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0	798	$3,000	$3.76	23d	3	0.46mi
411 Hobron Ln Unit 1327718P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	538	$3,558	$6.61	13d	1	0.46mi
411 Hobron Ln Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	575	$3,322	$5.78	5d	4	0.47mi
411 Hobron Ln Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	566	$3,575	$6.31	45d	2	0.47mi
411 Hobron Ln Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	575	$3,475	$6.04	46d	3	0.47mi
2045 Kalakaua Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	657	$4,200	$6.39	45d	1	0.51mi
902 University Ave Unit C Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	415	$2,735	$6.58	25d	1	0.51mi
2499 Kapiolani Blvd Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	474	$2,675	$5.64	19d	2	0.54mi
2499 Kapiolani Blvd Honolulu, HI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	575	$3,300	$5.74	12d	2	0.54mi
419A Atkinson Dr Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	664	$2,698	$4.06	19d	2	0.54mi
419A Atkinson Dr #1103 Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0	664	$2,700	$4.07	18d	1	0.54mi
2121 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0–3.0	1006	$4,400	$4.37	12d	1	0.55mi
2121 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0–3.0	1006	$4,200	$4.17	23d	2	0.55mi
2121 Ala Wai Blvd Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.0–3.0	1006	$4,150	$4.12	5d	2	0.55mi
2710 Kaaha St Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	418	$3,300	$7.89	25d	1	0.56mi
2499 Kapiolani Blvd #3800 Honolulu, HI	2.0	1.5	676	$3,200	$4.73	5d	1	0.58mi
445 Kaiolu St Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	490	$3,400	$6.94	19d	1	0.59mi
2140 Khi AVE Unit 2306 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	553	$2,700	$4.88	19d	1	0.59mi
2140 Khi AVE Unit 2006 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	553	$3,400	$6.15	4d	1	0.59mi
2140 Khi Ave Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	577	$4,500	$7.80	25d	1	0.60mi
2140 Khi Ave. unit Ph 2506 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	678	$3,200	$4.72	16d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd #801 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	724	$3,400	$4.70	25d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd #1219 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	724	$4,600	$6.35	25d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd #1317 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	683	$2,775	$4.06	23d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd #2606 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	724	$2,895	$4.00	5d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd #1307 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	683	$2,900	$4.25	25d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd #3318 Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	683	$3,400	$4.98	5d	1	0.60mi
1778 Ala Moana Blvd Unit 1541754P Honolulu, HI	1.0	1.0	721	$4,387	$6.08	16d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $702 · $8,424/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $347,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $347,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $347,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $347,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $347,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $347,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $347,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $347,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $347,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $347,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $347,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $347,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $347,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $347,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $347,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $347,000 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    listed $347,000 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Rarely available 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo with 1 covered parking stall in the highly desirable Moiliili. Conveniently located just minutes from world-famous Waikiki and the Ala Moana Shopping Center, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This thoughtfully designed unit features a unique layout with a separate entrance to the primary bedroom and en-suite bath — ideal for guests, or flexible living arrangements. Enjoy being close to shopping, dining, UH Manoa, bus lines, and everyday essentials. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, investor, or looking for a centrally located island home, this rarely available opportunity in Moiliili is not to be missed!

18. 2021-03-02
    historical
19. 2020-03-03
    listed $335,000 Active
20. 2019-12-31
    historical
21. 2019-10-01
    price $320,000
22. 2019-09-03
    listed $330,000 Active
23. 2013-12-19
    soldstatus $240,000
24. 2013-10-11
    soldstatus $226,500
25. 2013-10-11
    soldstatus $226,500
26. 2013-07-16
    listed $235,000
27. 2004-03-15
    soldstatus $118,900
28. 2002-12-09
    soldstatus $139,000
29. 2002-12-09
    soldstatus $139,000
30. 2002-10-25
    historical
31. 2002-05-28
    listed $149,000
32. 1994-12-30
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$119/yr (+$10/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,437
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$3,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,856
• − Management: −$2,856
• − HOA: −$8,424
• − Depreciation: −$10,095
• Taxable loss: −$11,903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,857
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Urban Honolulu

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urban Honolulu, HI
• County: Honolulu County · 963,448 people
• City population: 309,956
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• Population (ZIP): 29,174
• Household income: $68,296
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Honolulu County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,072,641 people
• By 2030: 1,110,460 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,181,593 · +10.2%
• By 2050: 1,257,584 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 1,501,120 · +39.9%
• By 2100: 1,764,430 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 54% Two or more races 18% White 13% Pacific Islander 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Vietnam, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 13% Chinese 6% Vietnamese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Honolulu

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.6) · D 59.9% · R 38.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.1pp · 2024: 21.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.6 2020: D+26.9 2016: D+29.9 2012: D+39.1 2008: D+41.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Current HPI: 272.9183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Metro: Urban Honolulu, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+594.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $347,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2021-03-02 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2020-03-03 Listed $335,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2019-10-01 Price Changed $320,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2019-09-03 Listed $330,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2013-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $226,500 Public Records
• 2013-10-11 Sold (MLS) $226,500 HiCentral MLS
• 2013-07-16 Listed $235,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2004-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $118,900 Public Records
• 2002-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-09 Sold (MLS) $139,000 HiCentral MLS
• 2002-10-25 Listing Removed — HiCentral MLS
• 2002-05-28 Listed $149,000 HiCentral MLS
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $733 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.