13691 Gavina Ave #355 · Los Angeles, CA 91342

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1989 4,400 sqft lot $206/sqft · 47% above area Est $213k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Santiago Estates, one of Sylmar’s most desirable all-age manufactured home communities, nestled near the foothills with a peaceful, more private setting away from heavy through traffic. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable and functional layout, along with additional flexible living space that can be adapted to fit a variety of needs—perfect for today’s lifestyle. Step outside and enjoy your own side/backyard area, providing a rare opportunity for outdoor space—ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or creating your own private retreat. The community itself is known for its quiet atmosphere while still being conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Residents of Santiago Estates enjoy a well-maintained neighborhood with amenities such as a pool, clubhouse, and recreational areas, all contributing to a welcoming, community-oriented environment.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Pool
• Recreational areas

Tags

• SIDE BACKYARD AREA
• WELL MAINTAINED NEIGHBORHOOD
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• RECREATIONAL AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $876 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harding Street Elementary (371 students, 66% FRL); San Fernando Middle (524 students, 97% FRL); San Fernando Senior High (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #609 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 1,745 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 67% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 183 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,865/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 2559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $315k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.92%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,012
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: 47.88%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13691 Gavina #609	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+6%)	1mo	$170,000	$105	89
13691 Gavina Ave #418	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+1%)	15mo	$316,000	$205	86
13691 Gavina Ave #359	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-1%)	17mo	$320,000	$212	85
13691 Gavina Ave #576	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+6%)	11mo	$260,000	$160	80
13691 Gavina #477	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-2%)	22mo	$235,000	$157	78
13691 Gavina #566	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+6%)	20mo	$305,000	$188	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-6,433
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $22,989
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91342

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$812
• Net cashflow: $876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,094	-5% $985	+0% $876	+5% $767	+10% $658
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $724	+0% $876	+5% $1,029	+10% $1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $956	base $876	+0.5pp $795	+1.0pp $712

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12707 Lazard St Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1067	$3,700	$3.47	45d	1	0.34mi
12727 Shenley St Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.0	1631	$3,795	$2.33	6d	1	0.82mi
13191 Cranston Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1469	$4,250	$2.89	4d	1	0.89mi
13197 Tripoli Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1350	$3,500	$2.59	16d	1	1.01mi
13874 Aults Ave Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.5	1300	$4,250	$3.27	0d	1	1.21mi
13057 Gladstone Ave Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.0	1379	$6,500	$4.71	26d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $315,000 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    Welcome to Santiago Estates, one of Sylmar’s most desirable all-age manufactured home communities, nestled near the foothills with a peaceful, more private setting away from heavy through traffic. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable and functional layout, along with additional flexible living space that can be adapted to fit a variety of needs—perfect for today’s lifestyle. Step outside and enjoy your own side/backyard area, providing a rare opportunity for outdoor space—ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or creating your own private retreat. The community itself is known for its quiet atmosphere while still being conveniently located near shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Residents of Santiago Estates enjoy a well-maintained neighborhood with amenities such as a pool, clubhouse, and recreational areas, all contributing to a welcoming, community-oriented environment.

16. 2014-11-19
    historical
17. 2014-06-19
    price $89,000
18. 2014-06-12
    historical
19. 2014-06-11
    price $92,500 Cancelled
20. 2014-06-11
    historical
21. 2014-06-11
    status Active
22. 2014-06-06
    listed $92,500 Active
23. 2014-03-20
    price $95,000
24. 2014-02-10
    price $98,888
25. 2014-02-10
    listed $95,000 Active
26. 2009-11-16
    historical
27. 2009-11-13
    listed $105,000 Active
28. 2009-10-03
    historical
29. 2009-07-21
    price $114,999
30. 2009-07-08
    price $112,999
31. 2009-05-29
    price $118,999
32. 2009-04-10
    listed $119,999
33. 2009-02-25
    historical
34. 2009-02-25
    historical
35. 2008-06-25
    price $120,000
36. 2008-04-24
    price $145,000
37. 2008-02-23
    price $155,000
38. 2007-10-26
    listed $165,000
39. 2007-10-25
    listed $120,000
40. 2007-08-25
    historical
41. 2007-06-29
    price $177,999
42. 2007-05-31
    price $179,999
43. 2007-04-14
    price $189,000
44. 2007-04-05
    listed $194,900
45. 2005-09-02
    soldstatus $185,000
46. 2005-06-30
    listed $189,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥97°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,710
• − Management: −$3,710
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable income: $5,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $9,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 93,301
• Household income: $98,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2559.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 23% White 12% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -921.77%
• Current HPI: 440.1462
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $315,000 CRMLS
• 2014-11-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-06-19 Price Changed $89,000 CRMLS
• 2014-06-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-06-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-06-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-06-11 Price Changed $92,500 CRMLS
• 2014-06-06 Listed $92,500 CRMLS
• 2014-03-20 Price Changed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-10 Price Changed $98,888 CRMLS
• 2014-02-10 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2009-11-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-11-13 Listed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2009-10-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-07-21 Price Changed $114,999 CRMLS
• 2009-07-08 Price Changed $112,999 CRMLS
• 2009-05-29 Price Changed $118,999 CRMLS
• 2009-04-10 Listed $119,999 CRMLS
• 2009-02-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-02-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-06-25 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2008-04-24 Price Changed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2008-02-23 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2007-10-26 Listed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2007-10-25 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2007-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-06-29 Price Changed $177,999 CRMLS
• 2007-05-31 Price Changed $179,999 CRMLS
• 2007-04-14 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2007-04-05 Listed $194,900 CRMLS
• 2005-09-02 Sold (MLS) $185,000 CRMLS
• 2005-06-30 Listed $189,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.