38343 Corey St · Zephyrhills South, FL 33542

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 687 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.29 ac lot Est $150k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FIXER-UPPER THAT NEEDS A COMPLETE REMODELING

Key facts

• New ac system
• 0.29 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• NEW AC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.29 acres (approximately 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No association/HOA; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces south; Property condition: Completed; Zoning: R3
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on vinyl-sided construction
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in Zephyrhills South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#836 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $115k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,766
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38312 Justin Ave	0.43mi	1/1.0 (-1)	688 (+0%)	2mo	$150,000	$218	73
38310 Fir Ave	0.07mi	2/2.0	644 (-6%)	22mo	$210,000	$326	64
4641 Orange Blossom Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	684 (-0%)	15mo	$77,575	$113	61
4631 6th St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	734 (+7%)	8mo	$224,000	$305	57
4522 5th St	0.30mi	2/1.0	780 (+14%)	12mo	$140,000	$179	53
37910 Sago Palm Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	788 (+15%)	15mo	$75,000	$95	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,686
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $530
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4352 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$1,100	$2.23	24d	1	0.17mi
4410 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	0.19mi
4412 Plum St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,100	$1.76	24d	1	0.19mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.54mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	0.76mi
38941 C Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	520	$1,050	$2.02	4d	1	0.80mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	10d	1	0.87mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	24d	1	0.95mi
38044 6th Ave Unit 38044 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	494	$950	$1.92	24d	1	0.96mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	16d	1	0.99mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	0.99mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	0.99mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	4d	1	0.99mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	24d	1	1.09mi
5426 8th St #1 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,150	$2.66	24d	1	1.21mi
39041 Manor Dr Unit B Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.33mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	16d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 319-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $115,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$501/yr (+$42/mo · 110.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,132
• − Management: −$1,132
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,068
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$256
• After-tax cash flow: $2,655/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills South

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #20702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills South, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+425.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-07 Sold (MLS) $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-14 Listed $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $454 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.