35875 Forerunner St · Ridgeway, AK 99669

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1997 0.28 ac lot $206/sqft · at area comps Est $101k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-bedroom, one-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Includes detached garage and shed. This is an estate sale and the property is being sold as-is, where-is. The seller will make no repairs.. Buyer is responsible for all inspections and due diligence. Property condition is reflected in the price. Personal representative. Perfect for a renovation loan. Of a state is related to Listing licensing.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#26 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.34%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,059
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -2.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35875 Forerunner St	0.00mi	1/1.0	480 (0%)	0mo	$99,000	$206	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-6,693
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,254
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99669

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This one-bedroom, one-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Includes detached garage and shed. This is an estate sale and the property is being sold as-is, where-is. The seller will make no repairs.. Buyer is responsible for all inspections and due diligence. Property condition is reflected in the price. Personal representative. Perfect for a renovation loan. Of a state is related to Listing licensing.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $99,000 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This one-bedroom, one-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Includes detached garage and shed. This is an estate sale and the property is being sold as-is, where-is. The seller will make no repairs.. Buyer is responsible for all inspections and due diligence. Property condition is reflected in the price. Personal representative. Perfect for a renovation loan. Of a state is related to Listing licensing.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $117,000 Active 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This one-bedroom, one-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking to build equity. Includes detached garage and shed. This is an estate sale and the property is being sold as-is, where-is. The seller will make no repairs.. Buyer is responsible for all inspections and due diligence. Property condition is reflected in the price. Personal representative. Perfect for a renovation loan. Of a state is related to Listing licensing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47
• After-tax cash flow: $1,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Ridgeway

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #12046

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridgeway, AK
• Population (ZIP): 15,722

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.58%
• Current HPI: 174.4233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $99,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $117,000 AKMLS