1401 9th St #163 · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$84,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 736 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1999 ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Shopping centers
• Local parks
• Built 1999

Tags

• LOCAL PARKS
• SHOPPING CENTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No improvements reported
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Water meter installed; No water rights
• Home design: Manufactured in-park; Mobile home
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater
• Interior features: Electric range; Space heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fort Lupton High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 91%, 763 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,965 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.37%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $55,828
• Equity at exit: $12,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $138,085
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $1,092

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,500 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,500 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,500 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,500 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,500 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,500 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,500 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,500 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,500 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $84,500 730-char remark
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $89,500 Active 730-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $12,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,986
• After-tax cash flow: $10,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $84,500 IRES
• 2026-05-14 Listed $89,500 IRES

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · +251.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.