3244 Timberwood Pkwy · Hollymead, VA 22911

$413,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 6,098 sqft lot $238/sqft · 18% below area Est $501k · 18% under $116/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained single-family home in the desirable Forest Lakes subdivision. The main level features an open floor plan with abundant natural light. A walk-out patio and covered pergola extend the living space to the outdoors, providing an ideal setting for relaxation and gatherings. Upstairs, the primary bedroom offers double doors, cathedral ceilings, a generous en-suite bath, and a walk-in closet. This property is competitively priced and move-in ready. Residents of Forest Lakes benefit from amenities such as a swimming pool, tennis courts, and numerous walking trails. https://forestlakes.net/

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee $348 quarterly; Association amenities include boat dock, clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, playground, pool, sports fields, tennis courts, trails, and water access

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Surveillance system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached property; Two-story home; Located on a cul-de-sac
• Construction: Stick built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool; Community dock; Association amenities: clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, playground, sports fields, tennis courts, trails, water access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedrooms on second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (main/first level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Home office; Gas log fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $413k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-680 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Hollymead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Baker-Butler Elem (math 67% / reading 78%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 740 students, 28% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,665 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $501,234
• List price: $413,000
• Delta: -17.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3244 Timberwood Pkwy	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,738 (0%)	1mo	$413,000	$238	100
3260 Timberwood Pkwy	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-7%)	2mo	$408,000	$252	86
2090 Tavernor Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,752 (+1%)	10mo	$519,000	$296	73
3256 Timberwood Pkwy	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,993 (+15%)	0mo	$544,000	$273	69
2006 Jefferson Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,821 (+5%)	12mo	$430,000	$236	60
2040 Whispering Woods Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,962 (+13%)	7mo	$569,900	$290	54
1889 Steeplechase Run	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-4%)	3mo	$420,000	$252	53
3200 Malbon Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,936 (+11%)	4mo	$505,000	$261	49
2017 Locke Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,814 (+4%)	22mo	$453,000	$250	48
2067 Winterfield Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-10%)	5mo	$549,000	$351	47
3152 Saddlebrook Ln	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,758 (+1%)	17mo	$515,000	$293	46
3104 Mollifield Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,545 (-11%)	12mo	$410,000	$265	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-107,432
• Equity at exit: $61,580

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-137,527
• Equity at exit: $35,709

Cash invested: $115,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22911

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,166
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,996/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $-680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,528

Max offer price $292,829

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,250
• Closing costs: $12,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2217 Brindle Ln Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.5	2182	$2,900	$1.33	13d	1	0.19mi
3279 Arbor Trce Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1641	$2,100	$1.28	43d	1	0.29mi
2132 Northside Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	2075	$3,550	$1.71	13d	1	0.63mi
5025 Huntly Ridge St Charlottesville, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,785	$2.62	13d	70	0.70mi
2061 Lockwood Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	1741	$2,975	$1.71	21d	1	0.85mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1065005 Earlysville, VA	2.0	2.0	1187	$1,874	$1.58	13d	1	1.30mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1090207 Earlysville, VA	2.0	2.0	1187	$2,124	$1.79	21d	1	1.30mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1065101 Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,275	$1.57	43d	1	1.30mi
1100 Monacan Ln Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,450	$1.69	43d	1	1.30mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1070308 Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,212	$1.53	43d	1	1.30mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1065308 Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,212	$1.53	13d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 620-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $413,000 Active 620-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   historical $413,000 620-char remark
4. 2012-11-19
   soldstatus $274,500
5. 2012-09-24
   listed $275,000
6. 2012-04-30
   soldstatus $269,000
7. 2012-02-01
   listed $274,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,996 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,996 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,134
• − Property taxes: −$3,996
• − Insurance: −$2,065
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$12,015
• Taxable loss: −$15,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,773
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollymead

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #9656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollymead, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,107
• Household income: $128,235
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.54%
• Current HPI: 220.3768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+50.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $413,000 CAAR
• 2026-05-03 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-01 Listed $413,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $413,000 CAAR
• 2012-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $274,500 Public Records
• 2012-09-24 Listed $275,000 CAAR
• 2012-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $269,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-01 Listed $274,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,996 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.