3843 Wilder Rd · Molino, FL 32533

$199,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,310 sqft · Manufactured public records · 239 Days on market

Built 2003 2.55 ac lot Est $254k · 22% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience in this charming manufactured home, set on a generous 1-acre lot Cantonment. This property offers an inviting and spacious living environment, ideal for those seeking both comfort and a touch of country living. With 2,310 square feet of living space, this home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample room for a comfortable lifestyle. Laminate flooring throughout for ease of maintenance. Additional space is provided by a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The expansive yard offers endless possibilities for outdoor activities and hobbies. Whether you’re looking to garden, play, or keep animals such as chickens, goats, turkeys, or even horses, this property can accommodate it all. The back patio deck serves as an ideal space for outdoor gatherings and leisure. Situated in a peaceful and friendly community, this home offers the best of rural living with convenient access to nearby schools, parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy the serene lifestyle of Cantonment while being just a short drive away from all essential amenities. This property stands out with its serene setting and ample space for various activities.

Key facts

• Pole barn
• Shed
• Storage

Tags

• POLE BARN
• SHED
• STORAGE
• WATER RUN TO BACK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.5% in Molino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#224 in FL, #3,540 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.05%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3650 N Hwy 29	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (-1%)	19mo	$250,000	$110	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,311
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $55,064
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,608

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-09-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-29
   soldstatus $211,000
3. 2025-07-01
   historical Contingent
4. 2025-06-19
   price $199,000
5. 2025-04-21
   price $205,000
6. 2025-04-03
   status Active
7. 2025-04-03
   price $220,000
8. 2025-03-21
   historical Contingent
9. 2025-02-02
   listed $239,500 Active
10. 2024-08-13
    soldstatus $162,800
11. 2024-07-29
    soldstatus $162,800 Sold 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience in this charming manufactured home, set on a generous 1-acre lot Cantonment. This property offers an inviting and spacious living environment, ideal for those seeking both comfort and a touch of country living. With 2,310 square feet of living space, this home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample room for a comfortable lifestyle. Laminate flooring throughout for ease of maintenance. Additional space is provided by a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The expansive yard offers endless possibilities for outdoor activities and hobbies. Whether you’re looking to garden, play, or keep animals such as chickens, goats, turkeys, or even horses, this property can accommodate it all. The back patio deck serves as an ideal space for outdoor gatherings and leisure. Situated in a peaceful and friendly community, this home offers the best of rural living with convenient access to nearby schools, parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy the serene lifestyle of Cantonment while being just a short drive away from all essential amenities. This property stands out with its serene setting and ample space for various activities.

12. 2024-07-27
    status Pending 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience in this charming manufactured home, set on a generous 1-acre lot Cantonment. This property offers an inviting and spacious living environment, ideal for those seeking both comfort and a touch of country living. With 2,310 square feet of living space, this home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample room for a comfortable lifestyle. Laminate flooring throughout for ease of maintenance. Additional space is provided by a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The expansive yard offers endless possibilities for outdoor activities and hobbies. Whether you’re looking to garden, play, or keep animals such as chickens, goats, turkeys, or even horses, this property can accommodate it all. The back patio deck serves as an ideal space for outdoor gatherings and leisure. Situated in a peaceful and friendly community, this home offers the best of rural living with convenient access to nearby schools, parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy the serene lifestyle of Cantonment while being just a short drive away from all essential amenities. This property stands out with its serene setting and ample space for various activities.

13. 2024-07-10
    historical Contingent 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience in this charming manufactured home, set on a generous 1-acre lot Cantonment. This property offers an inviting and spacious living environment, ideal for those seeking both comfort and a touch of country living. With 2,310 square feet of living space, this home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample room for a comfortable lifestyle. Laminate flooring throughout for ease of maintenance. Additional space is provided by a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The expansive yard offers endless possibilities for outdoor activities and hobbies. Whether you’re looking to garden, play, or keep animals such as chickens, goats, turkeys, or even horses, this property can accommodate it all. The back patio deck serves as an ideal space for outdoor gatherings and leisure. Situated in a peaceful and friendly community, this home offers the best of rural living with convenient access to nearby schools, parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy the serene lifestyle of Cantonment while being just a short drive away from all essential amenities. This property stands out with its serene setting and ample space for various activities.

14. 2024-07-09
    listed $235,000 Active 1247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1247 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience in this charming manufactured home, set on a generous 1-acre lot Cantonment. This property offers an inviting and spacious living environment, ideal for those seeking both comfort and a touch of country living. With 2,310 square feet of living space, this home features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, providing ample room for a comfortable lifestyle. Laminate flooring throughout for ease of maintenance. Additional space is provided by a covered back patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The expansive yard offers endless possibilities for outdoor activities and hobbies. Whether you’re looking to garden, play, or keep animals such as chickens, goats, turkeys, or even horses, this property can accommodate it all. The back patio deck serves as an ideal space for outdoor gatherings and leisure. Situated in a peaceful and friendly community, this home offers the best of rural living with convenient access to nearby schools, parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy the serene lifestyle of Cantonment while being just a short drive away from all essential amenities. This property stands out with its serene setting and ample space for various activities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,725 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,725 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $4,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $6,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Molino

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #3540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-01 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $199,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $205,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $220,000 PARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $239,500 PARMLS
• 2024-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $162,800 Public Records
• 2024-07-29 Sold (MLS) $162,800 PARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Pending — PARMLS
• 2024-07-10 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $235,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,725 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.