3605 Red Bird Trl · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · Manufactured public records · 352 Days on market

Built 1996 0.97 ac lot $144/sqft · 45% below area Est $549k · 45% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3605 Red Bird Trl offers a rare opportunity to own nearly an acre of unrestricted land in Lago Vista. Sitting on a private corner lot, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines privacy, flexibility, and convenience just minutes from Lake Travis. The home has been repainted inside and out in the past few years and features several updates throughout. Multiple sheds on the property provide plenty of storage or workspace, and the back portion of the lot has been cleared and is ready for a second dwelling, guest house, or workshop—making it ideal for multi-use, STR, or multigenerational setups. The home can be sold furnished or unfurnished, offering a turnkey option for those looking to move in quickly or start generating rental income right away. With no HOA and no restrictions, you're free to build, expand, or simply enjoy the space as it is. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this one checks the boxes. Located in the growing lakeside community of Lago Vista, residents enjoy easy access to Lake Travis for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with nearby Arkansas Bend Park for camping and outdoor recreation. The area is known for its scenic hill country views, relaxed lifestyle, and proximity to Austin—making it a popular spot for both full-time residents and vacationers alike. This is your chance to own a slice of the Hill Country with room to breathe and the freedom to make it your own.

Key facts

• Multiple sheds
• Cleared lot
• No hoa

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER LOT
• MULTIPLE SHEDS
• CLEARED LOT
• NO HOA
• EASY ACCESS TO LAKE TRAVIS
• NEARBY ARKANSAS BEND PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.3% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1092 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 352 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $950; list at $300k implies a 31479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 352 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,000
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -45.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-23,262
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $11,963
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1092
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,808/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,340

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $570	-5% $485	+0% $400	+5% $316	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $288	+0% $400	+5% $513	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $477	base $400	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2918 Thurman Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	3.0	2281	$3,900	$1.71	10d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 352 DOM
2. 2025-12-04
   price $300,000 1480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1480 chars)

   3605 Red Bird Trl offers a rare opportunity to own nearly an acre of unrestricted land in Lago Vista. Sitting on a private corner lot, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines privacy, flexibility, and convenience just minutes from Lake Travis. The home has been repainted inside and out in the past few years and features several updates throughout. Multiple sheds on the property provide plenty of storage or workspace, and the back portion of the lot has been cleared and is ready for a second dwelling, guest house, or workshop—making it ideal for multi-use, STR, or multigenerational setups. The home can be sold furnished or unfurnished, offering a turnkey option for those looking to move in quickly or start generating rental income right away. With no HOA and no restrictions, you're free to build, expand, or simply enjoy the space as it is. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this one checks the boxes. Located in the growing lakeside community of Lago Vista, residents enjoy easy access to Lake Travis for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with nearby Arkansas Bend Park for camping and outdoor recreation. The area is known for its scenic hill country views, relaxed lifestyle, and proximity to Austin—making it a popular spot for both full-time residents and vacationers alike. This is your chance to own a slice of the Hill Country with room to breathe and the freedom to make it your own.

3. 2025-10-13
   price $325,000 1480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1480 chars)

   3605 Red Bird Trl offers a rare opportunity to own nearly an acre of unrestricted land in Lago Vista. Sitting on a private corner lot, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines privacy, flexibility, and convenience just minutes from Lake Travis. The home has been repainted inside and out in the past few years and features several updates throughout. Multiple sheds on the property provide plenty of storage or workspace, and the back portion of the lot has been cleared and is ready for a second dwelling, guest house, or workshop—making it ideal for multi-use, STR, or multigenerational setups. The home can be sold furnished or unfurnished, offering a turnkey option for those looking to move in quickly or start generating rental income right away. With no HOA and no restrictions, you're free to build, expand, or simply enjoy the space as it is. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this one checks the boxes. Located in the growing lakeside community of Lago Vista, residents enjoy easy access to Lake Travis for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with nearby Arkansas Bend Park for camping and outdoor recreation. The area is known for its scenic hill country views, relaxed lifestyle, and proximity to Austin—making it a popular spot for both full-time residents and vacationers alike. This is your chance to own a slice of the Hill Country with room to breathe and the freedom to make it your own.

4. 2025-08-14
   price $350,000 1480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1480 chars)

   3605 Red Bird Trl offers a rare opportunity to own nearly an acre of unrestricted land in Lago Vista. Sitting on a private corner lot, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines privacy, flexibility, and convenience just minutes from Lake Travis. The home has been repainted inside and out in the past few years and features several updates throughout. Multiple sheds on the property provide plenty of storage or workspace, and the back portion of the lot has been cleared and is ready for a second dwelling, guest house, or workshop—making it ideal for multi-use, STR, or multigenerational setups. The home can be sold furnished or unfurnished, offering a turnkey option for those looking to move in quickly or start generating rental income right away. With no HOA and no restrictions, you're free to build, expand, or simply enjoy the space as it is. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this one checks the boxes. Located in the growing lakeside community of Lago Vista, residents enjoy easy access to Lake Travis for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with nearby Arkansas Bend Park for camping and outdoor recreation. The area is known for its scenic hill country views, relaxed lifestyle, and proximity to Austin—making it a popular spot for both full-time residents and vacationers alike. This is your chance to own a slice of the Hill Country with room to breathe and the freedom to make it your own.

5. 2025-06-13
   listed $400,000 Active 1480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1480 chars)

   3605 Red Bird Trl offers a rare opportunity to own nearly an acre of unrestricted land in Lago Vista. Sitting on a private corner lot, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home combines privacy, flexibility, and convenience just minutes from Lake Travis. The home has been repainted inside and out in the past few years and features several updates throughout. Multiple sheds on the property provide plenty of storage or workspace, and the back portion of the lot has been cleared and is ready for a second dwelling, guest house, or workshop—making it ideal for multi-use, STR, or multigenerational setups. The home can be sold furnished or unfurnished, offering a turnkey option for those looking to move in quickly or start generating rental income right away. With no HOA and no restrictions, you're free to build, expand, or simply enjoy the space as it is. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, weekend retreat, or investment property, this one checks the boxes. Located in the growing lakeside community of Lago Vista, residents enjoy easy access to Lake Travis for boating, fishing, and swimming, along with nearby Arkansas Bend Park for camping and outdoor recreation. The area is known for its scenic hill country views, relaxed lifestyle, and proximity to Austin—making it a popular spot for both full-time residents and vacationers alike. This is your chance to own a slice of the Hill Country with room to breathe and the freedom to make it your own.

6. 2022-09-01
   soldstatus
7. 2003-01-11
   historical
8. 2002-10-05
   listed
9. 1994-05-02
   soldstatus $950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,808 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,682/yr (+$307/mo · 203.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,808
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,733
• − Management: −$2,733
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $4,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $300,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $325,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $350,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $400,000 Unlock MLS
• 2022-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-11 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2002-10-05 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1994-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $950 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,808 · -37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.