2511 Ferndale Ave · Sacramento, CA 95822

$259,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1960 6,098 sqft lot Est $333k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Major fixer opportunity with tons of upside potential. The original 3-bedroom floor plan has been modified over the years and is ready for a buyer with vision, creativity, and a tool belt to restore and reimagine the space. Ideal for investors, contractors, or renovation-minded buyers looking for their next project. Opportunity to build sweat equity in a well-established Sacramento neighborhood. Priced aggressively for a fast sale. Bring your imagination and unlock the possibilities. Property is being sold strictly As Is.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Electric service: other; Public water; Public sewer; No irrigation
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Fixer condition; Built in 1960; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood and wire fencing (property fenced); Curb(s)/gutter(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Laminate counter in kitchen; Dual-pane partial windows; Living room with flexible/other features; Dining bar and dining/living combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($956/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Cesar Chavez Intermediate (373 students, 91% FRL); Luther Burbank High (1,603 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,871 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $332,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2511 Ferndale Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,040 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$264	100
7523 24th St	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,040 (0%)	6mo	$373,000	$359	92
7433 Troon Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,139 (+10%)	7mo	$350,000	$307	62
7495 21st St	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-3%)	3mo	$390,000	$387	59
2171 Meadowview Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,094 (+5%)	5mo	$385,000	$352	56
7273 Tamoshanter Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,079 (+4%)	5mo	$435,000	$403	55
115 Pulsar Cir	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	990 (-5%)	5mo	$288,450	$291	55
2650 Cadjew Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,159 (+11%)	7mo	$380,000	$328	53
2187 Montecito Way	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,141 (+10%)	5mo	$365,000	$320	52
7330 Tamoshanter Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,098 (+6%)	3mo	$330,000	$301	52
2273 Pierre Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+12%)	6mo	$355,000	$306	49
59 Quasar Cir	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	958 (-8%)	2mo	$275,000	$287	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-34,304
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,390
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95822

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $153	+0% $80	+5% $6	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $-1	+0% $80	+5% $160	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $210	-0.5pp $146	base $80	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Nedra Ct Unit A1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	22d	1	0.22mi
26 Nedra Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	45d	1	0.22mi
2777 Meadowview Rd Unit 2781 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	24d	1	0.28mi
2777 Meadowview Rd Unit 2779 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	0d	1	0.28mi
7638 24th St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,900	$1.95	45d	1	0.36mi
7400 Loma Verde Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,100	$2.44	0d	1	0.38mi
3249 Torrance Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1258	$2,599	$2.07	25d	1	0.55mi
7557 Lemarsh Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	0d	1	0.58mi
7640 Walsh Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,695	$2.07	45d	1	0.71mi
7462 21st St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	4d	1	0.75mi
7726 Laurie Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1069	$2,075	$1.94	9d	1	0.88mi
2081 Wakefield Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,500	$1.77	22d	1	0.98mi
4074 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,498	$2.08	19d	1	1.12mi
4066 Weymouth Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,900	$1.44	45d	1	1.12mi
6855 Carnation Ave Unit 6855 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,025	$1.84	5d	1	1.16mi
74 La Fresa Ct #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	45d	1	1.22mi
2360 53rd Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1474	$2,495	$1.69	45d	1	1.25mi
7408 Franklin Blvd #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	24d	1	1.28mi
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,768	$2.26	45d	1	1.28mi
4407 Bouts Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	45d	1	1.33mi
4417 A Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	45d	1	1.33mi
6739 Ferrier Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,325	$2.10	25d	1	1.44mi
4068 Fawn Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	0d	1	1.47mi
7605 Franklin Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	824	$1,645	$2.00	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $259,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $259,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $259,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $259,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,191/yr (+$99/mo · 153.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,957
• − Management: −$1,957
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,569
• Household income: $86,801
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1336.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% White 27% Asian 18% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Russian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Chinese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -613.80%
• Current HPI: 338.7878
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.