627 S 5th St · Niles, MI 49120

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1910 8,382 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home located in the city of Niles. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or take on your next renovation project, this property offers solid potential and value. Outside, you'll find a 2-car detached garage, perfect for storage, workshop space, or added tenant appeal. With some updates and improvements, this property could shine as a rental, flip, or long-term investment. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or buyers. Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities!

Key facts

• Major routes
• Local amenities
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• MAJOR ROUTES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Traditional style single-family home; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1910; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Partial Michigan-style basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access; Yard shed(s)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Garage door opener; 6 total rooms

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$206,584) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.4% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#260 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Niles Community Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #248 of 540 in MI (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.45%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 Vann St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+1%)	11mo	$182,000	$104	74
724 Hickory St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,600 (-8%)	2mo	$146,000	$91	71
1120 Hickory St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+2%)	2mo	$212,500	$119	70
415 S 9th St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-6%)	10mo	$140,000	$86	69
923 Regent St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,695 (-2%)	4mo	$169,000	$100	62
920 Cherry St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-14%)	3mo	$192,900	$129	60
23 Market St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-2%)	8mo	$240,000	$141	59
115 S State St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,637 (-6%)	8mo	$248,600	$152	54
314 S Saint Joseph Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-6%)	7mo	$225,000	$138	53
1526 Inner Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,606 (-8%)	6mo	$191,100	$119	52
718 Regent St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,550 (-11%)	3mo	$140,000	$90	52
1341 Hickory St	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,522 (-12%)	8mo	$101,000	$66	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $26,555
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $71,951
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49120

• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $606

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $634	-5% $614	+0% $594	+5% $575	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $487	-5% $541	+0% $594	+5% $648	+10% $702
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $612	base $594	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1900 E Main St Niles, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,005	$1.17	14d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $69,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
20. 2026-05-05
    listed $79,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home located in the city of Niles. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or take on your next renovation project, this property offers solid potential and value. Outside, you'll find a 2-car detached garage, perfect for storage, workshop space, or added tenant appeal. With some updates and improvements, this property could shine as a rental, flip, or long-term investment. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or buyers. Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities!

21. 2026-05-05
    listed $79,900 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home located in the city of Niles. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or take on your next renovation project, this property offers solid potential and value. Outside, you'll find a 2-car detached garage, perfect for storage, workshop space, or added tenant appeal. With some updates and improvements, this property could shine as a rental, flip, or long-term investment. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or buyers. Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities!

22. 2026-05-05
    listed $79,900 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home located in the city of Niles. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or take on your next renovation project, this property offers solid potential and value. Outside, you'll find a 2-car detached garage, perfect for storage, workshop space, or added tenant appeal. With some updates and improvements, this property could shine as a rental, flip, or long-term investment. Conveniently located near local amenities, schools, and major routes, making it attractive for future tenants or buyers. Bring your ideas and unlock the possibilities!

23. 2014-09-15
    historical
24. 1997-09-19
    historical
25. 1997-03-19
    listed $47,900
26. 1997-03-19
    listed $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,036 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $5,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2625560
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,281
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5894
• State rank: #248 of 540 in MI

Livability — Niles

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #6422

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, MI
• County: Berrien County · 71,477 people
• City population: 36,495
• Metro: Niles, MI
• Population (ZIP): 36,495
• Household income: $65,148
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 782.0

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.26%
• Current HPI: 195.8214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Niles, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+66.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-05 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 1997-09-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 1997-03-19 Listed $47,900 REALCOMP
• 1997-03-19 Listed $47,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $996 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.