8991 Lismore Ct · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1981 8,712 sqft lot Est $197k · at est. $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakefront pool home. 3/2/2 on lake in the Heather. Existing furnishings included. House needs some TLC, carpet and exterior painting. Nice neighborhood, small monthly maintenance fee. Central school system.

Key facts

• Roof in 2022
• Waterfront
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• STUNNING BACKYARD VIEWS
• ROOF IN 2022

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-207/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.9% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 991 students, 60% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $200k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,069 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,393
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8991 Lismore Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (0%)	1mo	$197,000	$163	94
8050 Roxburgh Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,185 (-2%)	5mo	$200,000	$169	79
7291 Loch Ness Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,211 (0%)	6mo	$125,000	$103	76
9127 Lingrove Rd	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,316 (+9%)	0mo	$179,000	$136	75
7486 Heather Walk Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,211 (0%)	6mo	$135,000	$111	75
9139 Lingrove Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (+6%)	6mo	$205,000	$160	70
7275 Edinburgh Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+7%)	1mo	$240,000	$185	66
8026 Victoria Way	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,276 (+5%)	1mo	$230,000	$180	65
7435 Abington Way	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,035 (-14%)	1mo	$210,000	$203	61
9195 Lingrove Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+14%)	3mo	$191,000	$138	56
9155 Lingrove Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+14%)	7mo	$199,000	$143	53
9013 Nakoma Way	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (-8%)	2mo	$277,500	$249	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,464
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-30,442
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 691
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,747/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $196,851

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7251 Mc Ginnes Ct Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,695	$1.25	5d	1	0.08mi
7425 Galloway Rd Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$1,600	$1.71	12d	1	0.39mi
7569 Heather Walk Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1211	$1,595	$1.32	18d	1	0.42mi
8992 Hernando Way Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,695	$1.14	5d	1	0.46mi
7744 St Andrews Blvd Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,450	$1.27	24d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   status Active
3. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2001-10-19
   soldstatus $67,500
6. 2001-10-15
   soldstatus $1 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   Lakefront pool home. 3/2/2 on lake in the Heather. Existing furnishings included. House needs some TLC, carpet and exterior painting. Nice neighborhood, small monthly maintenance fee. Central school system.

7. 2001-06-15
   listed $79,500 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   Lakefront pool home. 3/2/2 on lake in the Heather. Existing furnishings included. House needs some TLC, carpet and exterior painting. Nice neighborhood, small monthly maintenance fee. Central school system.

8. 1990-07-01
   soldstatus $70,000
9. 1984-10-01
   soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,747 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,747
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$864
• After-tax cash flow: $657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+181.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HCAR
• 2026-04-06 Pending — HCAR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $199,900 HCAR
• 2001-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2001-10-15 Sold (MLS) $1 HCAR
• 2001-06-15 Listed $79,500 HCAR
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,747 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.