19948 Lindley Woods St · Deerwood, TX 77328

$195,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2002 0.93 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy space, comfort, and convenience in Cleveland, TX! This Beautiful home at 19948 Lindley Woods sits on a full acre of land, offering plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future projects. Inside, you'll find a spacious, open-concept layout with abundant natural light and updated finishes- perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Located in a peaceful neighborhood while still close to shopping, dining, and major highways, this property combines country charm with city convenience!

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Full acre of land
• Outdoor living

Tags

• FULL ACRE OF LAND
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• UPDATED FINISHES
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Single-level entry
• Construction: Built in 2002; Block foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Additional parcels included

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 12 x 16); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each approx. 10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.4% in Deerwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 339 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,371
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $22,390
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $745/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,476

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $476	-5% $421	+0% $366	+5% $311	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $289	+0% $366	+5% $443	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $416	base $366	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.03mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	8d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $195,000 Active
16. 2026-04-30
    historical
17. 2026-02-09
    status Active
18. 2025-09-01
    historical
19. 2025-08-13
    listed $199,990 Active
20. 2025-07-16
    soldstatus
21. 2025-06-24
    status Pending
22. 2025-06-13
    status Pending
23. 2025-06-09
    historical
24. 2025-05-31
    price $213,000
25. 2025-04-30
    listed $215,000 Active
26. 2025-01-31
    historical
27. 2025-01-24
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $745 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,824/yr (+$235/mo · 379.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$745
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$295
• After-tax cash flow: $4,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $213,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $220,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $745 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.