4604 Cleto St · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2015 5,932 sqft lot $186/sqft · 24% below area Est $341k · 24% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 4604 Cleto St in Austin! This well-maintained home offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a bright kitchen, and a private backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and just minutes from downtown Austin—this home blends everyday comfort with city convenience.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Private backyard
• Functional layout

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,312 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,801
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -23.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4503 Halliday Ave	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-8%)	3mo	$257,500	$200	75
4705 Fallenash Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-3%)	4mo	$191,999	$142	68
15208 Walcott Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	5mo	$285,000	$189	67
3509 Chappie Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+0%)	4mo	$279,000	$199	63
4523 Felicity Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-5%)	2mo	$230,000	$173	63
4516 Felicity Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,333 (-5%)	0mo	$230,000	$173	60
814 Hatton Hill Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-10%)	6mo	$270,000	$216	59
4523 Secure Ln	0.53mi	3/3.5	1,300 (-7%)	1mo	$185,000	$142	57
3606 Chappie Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+8%)	4mo	$285,000	$188	51
14505 Sandifer St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+8%)	4mo	$250,000	$165	50
14704 Varrelman St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-14%)	2mo	$219,900	$183	50
15913 Cowslip Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	6mo	$249,898	$208	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,353
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-105,642
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,197/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,332

Max offer price $205,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-234	+0% $-307	+5% $-381	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-384	+0% $-307	+5% $-231	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-177	-0.5pp $-241	base $-307	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.11mi
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	44d	1	0.16mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	44d	1	0.23mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.26mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	24d	1	0.26mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	44d	1	0.29mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	4d	1	0.31mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.31mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	22d	1	0.34mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.34mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	4d	1	0.35mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	4d	1	0.38mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	16d	1	0.39mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	11d	1	0.51mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	0.54mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	4d	1	0.54mi
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	24d	1	0.57mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.57mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	0.57mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	24d	1	0.63mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.66mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	2d	1	0.66mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	44d	1	0.67mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.69mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	44d	1	0.73mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	4d	1	0.75mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	0.79mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	24d	1	0.79mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	2d	1	0.82mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	44d	1	0.84mi
15001 Bigelow Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,850	$1.04	4d	1	0.88mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	44d	1	0.89mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.93mi
5706 Melody Ln Unit 3 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	44d	1	0.96mi
5706 Melody Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	44d	1	0.96mi
14909 Custis Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	44d	1	1.01mi
5813 Wideleaf Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	1.03mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	4d	1	1.09mi
3201 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,800	$1.31	44d	1	1.19mi
6120 Diamondleaf Bnd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	44d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $260,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-01-09
   listed $260,000 Active 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   Welcome home to 4604 Cleto St in Austin! This well-maintained home offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, a bright kitchen, and a private backyard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and just minutes from downtown Austin—this home blends everyday comfort with city convenience.

3. 2016-06-27
   soldstatus Sold 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   MLS# 4880081 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready now! ~ Beautiful front stone elevation with a cover front porch that allows you to spend time in the evening enjoying the beauty of your front yard and bushes. You have great new stainless steel appliances and designed back splash in the kitchen. Also your bathrooms include nice tile in the shower walls and piedrafina marble counter tops with under mount sink. Restrictions: Yes

4. 2016-05-31
   status Pending 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   MLS# 4880081 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready now! ~ Beautiful front stone elevation with a cover front porch that allows you to spend time in the evening enjoying the beauty of your front yard and bushes. You have great new stainless steel appliances and designed back splash in the kitchen. Also your bathrooms include nice tile in the shower walls and piedrafina marble counter tops with under mount sink. Restrictions: Yes

5. 2016-03-14
   listed $188,360 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   MLS# 4880081 - Built by Pacesetter Homes - Ready now! ~ Beautiful front stone elevation with a cover front porch that allows you to spend time in the evening enjoying the beauty of your front yard and bushes. You have great new stainless steel appliances and designed back splash in the kitchen. Also your bathrooms include nice tile in the shower walls and piedrafina marble counter tops with under mount sink. Restrictions: Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,197 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$561/yr (+$47/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,197
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$8,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,990
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $260,000 Unlock MLS
• 2016-06-27 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2016-05-31 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2016-03-14 Listed $188,360 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,197 · -12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.