Oakwood Plan · Forsyth, GA 31029

$404,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely Stunning Inside & Out! Remarkable 2 Story Foyer, Formal Dining Room w/ Tons of Detail. Generously Sized Great Room with Fireplace. Open Concept featuring Chef's Kitchen w/ Stylish Cabinetry, Luxury Countertop Options, Tiled Backsplash & Stainless Appliances. Large Kitchen Island open to Breakfast Area. Master on the Main Level with Trey Ceilings & Tons of Natural Light. Owner's Bath w/ Garden Tub, Tiled Shower, Quartz Countertops & Huge Walk-in Closet. Owner's Entry Boasts our Signature Drop Zone, the Perfect Family Catch all. Half Bath Conveniently Located for Guests. Exploring the Upstairs, you will find Media Room creating the Perfect 2nd Living Space. Additional Bedrooms are Spacious w/ Ample Closets. Two Full Baths Upstairs makes Family Living Easy. Two Car Garage, Our Signature Gameday Patio with Outdoor Fireplace is Perfect for Unwinding. & Tons of Hughston Homes Included Features!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. The $404,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $357,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $356k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.0% in Forsyth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#24 in GA, #3,557 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monroe County (rural): math 43% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #22 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Katherine B. Sutton Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #380 of 1,228 statewide, top 33%, 699 students, 58% FRL); Monroe County Middle School- Banks Stephens Campus (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 994 students, 47% FRL); Mary Persons High School (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #59 of 424 statewide, top 14%, 1,287 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 281 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $356,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,512
• List price: $404,900
• Delta: 13.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1177 Victorian Blvd	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,761 (-9%)	7mo	$347,400	$126	78
4320 Cornwall Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,166 (+4%)	6mo	$444,900	$141	76
4604 Capulet Ct	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,168 (+5%)	2mo	$430,000	$136	73
4630 Capulet Ct	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,151 (+4%)	8mo	$446,900	$142	67
4622 Capulet Ct	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,158 (+4%)	9mo	$473,250	$150	66
4648 Capulet Ct #337	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,864 (-5%)	10mo	$396,900	$139	62
4648 Capulet Ct	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,864 (-5%)	10mo	$396,900	$139	62
5411 Felles Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,778 (-8%)	10mo	$419,150	$151	61
5411 Felles Way #339	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,778 (-8%)	10mo	$419,150	$151	61
5399 Felles Way #358	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,599 (-14%)	2mo	$386,900	$149	60
5399 Felles Way	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,599 (-14%)	2mo	$386,900	$149	60
4603 Capulet Ct	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,599 (-14%)	8mo	$373,775	$144	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-13,969
• Equity at exit: $53,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $44,613
• Equity at exit: $30,911

Cash invested: $100,103 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31029

• Home prices YoY: -10.0%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,875
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$447 /mo · $5,363/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,127

Max offer price $357,512

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $936	-5% $813	+0% $689	+5% $566	+10% $442
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $531	+0% $689	+5% $847	+10% $1,005
Rate	-1.0pp $869	-0.5pp $780	base $689	+0.5pp $597	+1.0pp $502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,378
• Closing costs: $10,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Indian Springs Dr Forsyth, GA	3.0	2.5	4348	$4,000	$0.92	14d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $404,900 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $404,900 Active 954 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $404,900 Active 953 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $404,900 Active 952 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $404,900 Active 951 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $404,900 Active 950 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $404,900 Active 948 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $404,900 Active 947 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $404,900 Active 945 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $404,900 Active 944 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $404,900 Active 943 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $404,900 Active 942 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $404,900 Active 939 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $404,900 Active 937 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $404,900 Active 936 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,900 Active 935 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $404,900 Active 934 DOM
18. 2024-04-03
    price $404,900 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Absolutely Stunning Inside & Out! Remarkable 2 Story Foyer, Formal Dining Room w/ Tons of Detail. Generously Sized Great Room with Fireplace. Open Concept featuring Chef's Kitchen w/ Stylish Cabinetry, Luxury Countertop Options, Tiled Backsplash & Stainless Appliances. Large Kitchen Island open to Breakfast Area. Master on the Main Level with Trey Ceilings & Tons of Natural Light. Owner's Bath w/ Garden Tub, Tiled Shower, Quartz Countertops & Huge Walk-in Closet. Owner's Entry Boasts our Signature Drop Zone, the Perfect Family Catch all. Half Bath Conveniently Located for Guests. Exploring the Upstairs, you will find Media Room creating the Perfect 2nd Living Space. Additional Bedrooms are Spacious w/ Ample Closets. Two Full Baths Upstairs makes Family Living Easy. Two Car Garage, Our Signature Gameday Patio with Outdoor Fireplace is Perfect for Unwinding. & Tons of Hughston Homes Included Features!

19. 2023-11-08
    listed $394,900 Active 941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (941 chars)

    Absolutely Stunning Inside & Out! Remarkable 2 Story Foyer, Formal Dining Room w/ Tons of Detail. Generously Sized Great Room with Fireplace. Open Concept featuring Chef's Kitchen w/ Stylish Cabinetry, Luxury Countertop Options, Tiled Backsplash & Stainless Appliances. Large Kitchen Island open to Breakfast Area. Master on the Main Level with Trey Ceilings & Tons of Natural Light. Owner's Bath w/ Garden Tub, Tiled Shower, Quartz Countertops & Huge Walk-in Closet. Owner's Entry Boasts our Signature Drop Zone, the Perfect Family Catch all. Half Bath Conveniently Located for Guests. Exploring the Upstairs, you will find Media Room creating the Perfect 2nd Living Space. Additional Bedrooms are Spacious w/ Ample Closets. Two Full Baths Upstairs makes Family Living Easy. Two Car Garage, Our Signature Gameday Patio with Outdoor Fireplace is Perfect for Unwinding. & Tons of Hughston Homes Included Features!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,026
• − Property taxes: −$5,363
• − Insurance: −$1,788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$10,400
• Taxable income: $2,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$658
• After-tax cash flow: $7,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe County
• NCES district ID: 1303720
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,955
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4084
• State rank: #22 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forsyth

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #3557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,311
• Population (ZIP): 18,311

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,503 people
• By 2030: 28,940 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 29,157 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 28,646 · +0.5%
• By 2075: 27,261 · -4.4%
• By 2100: 23,757 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.7) · D 26.5% · R 73.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -31.5pp · 2024: -46.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+37.3 2008: R+31.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.57%
• Current HPI: 247.3119
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $404,900 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $394,900 Zillow