212 E 1st St · San Juan, TX 78589

$85,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1974 3,497 sqft lot $65/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home in San Juan, Texas, offers a spacious 1,299 sq. ft. living area situated on a 3,500 sq. ft. lot, conveniently located near the Basilica of San Juan. With three bedrooms and one bathroom, this property is in need of repairs but presents a fantastic opportunity for renovation and expansion. The ample space for expansion makes it an ideal investment for those looking to create their dream home or next investment venture in a prime location in San Juan, Texas.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• 3,497 sq ft lot
• Built 1974

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• AMPLE SPACE FOR EXPANSION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.69%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,846
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -59.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 E 1st St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,167 (-10%)	3mo	$185,000	$159	66
415 Liza St	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	12mo	$239,900	$178	64
409 Liza St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (+1%)	14mo	$226,000	$173	63
412 Zapata St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,390 (+7%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	62
132 E Ciro Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,301 (+0%)	7mo	$193,500	$149	53
406 Zapata St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+12%)	8mo	$239,000	$165	51
306 W 3rd St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,134 (-13%)	10mo	$134,900	$119	44
410 W Seventh St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+6%)	8mo	$187,000	$136	43
605 Ebony St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,168 (-10%)	8mo	$72,000	$62	38
406 Liza St	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,490 (+15%)	16mo	$249,999	$168	36
314 E 10th St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (+10%)	9mo	$265,000	$186	36
600 Palmetto St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+13%)	12mo	$170,000	$115	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $21,263
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $63,784
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,910/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $811

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 E Gomez Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	1.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	14d	1	0.54mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	43d	1	0.66mi
1109 Del Monte Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	989	$1,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.74mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	23d	1	0.90mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.94mi
1709 Calle Tulipan San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,750	$0.95	43d	1	1.01mi
1400 State Ave San Juan, TX	4.0	3.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	19d	1	1.10mi
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	1.14mi
1410 State Ave San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	1.15mi
418 Chula Vista Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,600	$1.16	43d	1	1.20mi
808 E Evans Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,400	$1.28	43d	1	1.32mi
207 E Garfield St San Juan, TX	4.0	3.0	1818	$1,900	$1.05	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-01-19
    listed $85,000 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    This two-story home in San Juan, Texas, offers a spacious 1,299 sq. ft. living area situated on a 3,500 sq. ft. lot, conveniently located near the Basilica of San Juan. With three bedrooms and one bathroom, this property is in need of repairs but presents a fantastic opportunity for renovation and expansion. The ample space for expansion makes it an ideal investment for those looking to create their dream home or next investment venture in a prime location in San Juan, Texas.

17. 2025-08-19
    price $90,000
18. 2024-11-20
    listed $99,999 Active
19. 2024-11-05
    price $99,999
20. 2024-06-27
    listed $100,000 Active
21. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus
22. 1996-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,910
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,609
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $5,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $90,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-20 Listed $99,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $99,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $100,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2006-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,910 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.