364 S Paseo Lobo Unit B · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 173 Days on market

Built 1964 $378/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1-bedroom condo in a desirable 55+ community, tucked away from the street for privacy and tranquility. BRAND NEW HVAC system installed recently. Features ceramic flooring throughout, full-size appliances, and mountain views from the front patio. Enjoy nearby greenspace, a heated community pool, and laundry just steps away. HOA covers all exterior maintenance, water, sewer, trash, pest control and HVAC and water heater repair/replacement. Furniture can be included as part of the sale. Walk to GV Village Mall with restaurants, shopping, medical offices, and a farmer's market. GVR not required! Come check out this jewel today.

Key facts

• Ceramic flooring
• Laundry steps away
• Mountain views

Tags

• CERAMIC FLOORING
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• NEARBY GREENSPACE
• LAUNDRY STEPS AWAY
• WALK TO GV VILLAGE MALL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 915 sq ft; Road maintenance by HOA; Zoned Pima County - TR; Spa on property
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association amenities include laundry, park, pool, spa/hot tub, recreation center, sidewalks; HOA pays heating/air conditioning, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, front yard maintenance, gas, pest control, roof repair, sewer, street maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Utilities: Water via water company; Sewer connected; Phone service connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Brick construction; Built-up roof; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Gas oven
• Laundry & utility: On-site laundry available through association

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($973/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $90k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.86%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-5,483
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $18,786
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$378
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $112	+0% $81	+5% $50	+10% $19
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $27	+0% $81	+5% $135	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $104	base $81	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.05mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.08mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	18d	1	0.12mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.13mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.13mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	3d	1	0.13mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.14mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.18mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.19mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	3d	1	0.24mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.33mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $378 · $4,536/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashexterior maint.pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $89,900 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,000 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $92,000
15. 2026-03-28
    status Active
16. 2026-03-28
    price $94,900
17. 2026-03-27
    historical
18. 2026-02-20
    price $99,900
19. 2026-02-10
    price $104,500
20. 2025-12-26
    listed $105,000 Active
21. 2025-11-20
    historical
22. 2025-09-05
    price $109,000
23. 2025-07-11
    listed $114,900 Active
24. 2025-05-15
    historical
25. 2025-04-12
    price $119,900
26. 2025-02-09
    listed $125,000 Active
27. 2025-02-06
    historical
28. 2025-01-26
    status Active
29. 2025-01-26
    historical
30. 2024-12-09
    price $128,000
31. 2024-07-25
    listed $134,000 Active
32. 2024-07-04
    historical
33. 2024-07-04
    price $134,000
34. 2024-02-18
    listed $137,900 Active
35. 2023-10-03
    historical
36. 2023-04-18
    listed $139,000 Active
37. 2020-12-05
    historical
38. 2020-10-31
    price $86,000
39. 2020-06-04
    listed $83,000 Active
40. 2020-05-21
    historical
41. 2020-05-14
    listed $83,000 Active
42. 2020-04-27
    historical
43. 2020-04-11
    price $79,900
44. 2020-03-24
    price $85,000
45. 2020-03-19
    price $91,000
46. 2020-03-09
    listed $95,000 Active
47. 2020-03-09
    historical
48. 2020-03-04
    price $95,000
49. 2020-02-11
    price $99,900
50. 2020-01-10
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − HOA: −$4,536
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $1,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+104.4% since first listed

47 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $92,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $94,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $99,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $104,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-26 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-11 Listed $114,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $119,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-09 Listed $125,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-06 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-26 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-26 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-09 Price Changed $128,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-25 Listed $134,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-04 Price Changed $134,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-18 Listed $137,900 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-18 Listed $139,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-05 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-10-31 Price Changed $86,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-06-04 Listed $83,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-14 Listed $83,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-04-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-04-11 Price Changed $79,900 MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-24 Price Changed $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-19 Price Changed $91,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-09 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-09 Listed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-04 Price Changed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-02-11 Price Changed $99,900 MLSSAZ
• 2020-01-10 Listed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-07-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2016-07-07 Listed $52,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-07-07 Listed $52,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-02-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2016-02-24 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2016-02-24 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2015-08-26 Listed $44,900 MLSSAZ
• 2015-04-15 Sold (MLS) $37,000 MLSSAZ
• 2008-05-29 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MLSSAZ
• 2008-02-08 Listed $45,000 MLSSAZ