40620 W Christopher Dr · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2020 4,450 sqft lot $185/sqft · 12% below area Est $319k · 12% under $132/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2-story home with no neighbors behind and endless potential to create the backyard oasis of your dreams! Enjoy relaxing evenings under the covered patio in this affordable, move-in ready home priced to sell. Inside, you'll love the open floor plan and modern kitchen featuring a large island perfect for entertaining, plus a convenient 1/2 bath on the main floor. Upstairs offers all bedrooms along with the laundry room for added convenience and functionality. Great location close to shopping, dining, schools, and everyday essentials. Opportunities like this don't last long -- come see it before it's gone!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laundry room
• Covered patio

Tags

• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $132 covering grounds maintenance; Community biking/walking path

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Desert-front landscaping; Gravel/stone front; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathroom; Upstairs living area; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Laminate countertops; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Upstairs laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-325 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Saddleback Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 795 students, 56% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,994 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,262
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -12.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18450 N Foxtail Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-3%)	6mo	$304,990	$208	82
40625 W Patricia Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-9%)	3mo	$309,990	$224	78
40555 W Patricia Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-9%)	3mo	$302,990	$219	76
18485 N Foxtail Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	4mo	$300,990	$186	76
18425 N Tanners Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-9%)	6mo	$299,990	$217	74
40535 W Patricia Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-9%)	6mo	$294,990	$213	73
41254 W Granada Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,441 (-5%)	3mo	$269,000	$187	70
40214 W Lococo St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+4%)	3mo	$299,000	$189	68
18514 N Jameson Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+4%)	0mo	$332,900	$211	66
40136 W Catherine Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+13%)	3mo	$330,000	$194	60
40098 W Catherine Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,321 (-13%)	5mo	$277,000	$210	52
19081 N Jameson Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+10%)	2mo	$345,000	$206	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,753
• Equity at exit: $69,101

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,219
• Equity at exit: $73,858

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,158/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $222,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-246	+0% $-325	+5% $-404	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-403	+0% $-325	+5% $-246	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-254	base $-325	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40584 W Helen Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,300	$1.19	5d	1	0.11mi
40404 W Molly Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1803	$1,695	$0.94	45d	1	0.14mi
40250 W Green Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,395	$1.42	45d	1	0.23mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,729	$0.92	18d	1	0.33mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,699	$0.90	7d	1	0.33mi
41177 W Lucera Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1838	$1,875	$1.02	7d	1	0.38mi
39695 W Lococo St Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1133	$1,540	$1.36	0d	24	0.43mi
41342 W Capistrano Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2201	$1,800	$0.82	7d	1	0.47mi
39696 W Lococo St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,604	$1.42	45d	1	0.47mi
17645 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,150	$2.16	0d	16	0.58mi
19550 N Gunsmoke Rd Maricopa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1056	$1,604	$1.52	26d	10	0.79mi
17485 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,399	$1.48	0d	17	0.82mi
18184 N Calacera St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	18d	1	0.93mi
40481 W Jenna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,785	$0.98	0d	1	0.95mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	13d	1	1.02mi
42584 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$1,723	$1.51	0d	60	1.06mi
41363 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,739	$1.09	45d	1	1.13mi
16720 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,750	$1.91	0d	28	1.16mi
39941 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	26d	1	1.16mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	5d	1	1.16mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	45d	1	1.16mi
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.19mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	26d	1	1.19mi
41094 W Somers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,850	$1.15	3d	1	1.20mi
42246 W Balsa Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,679	$1.06	45d	1	1.21mi
41057 W Ganley Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	1908	$1,925	$1.01	0d	1	1.22mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	45d	1	1.25mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	26d	1	1.25mi
41932 W Manderas Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1553	$1,850	$1.19	26d	1	1.29mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,656	$1.07	0d	1	1.33mi
42725 W Martie Lynn Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,015	$1.34	26d	1	1.34mi
40174 W Brandt Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2115	$1,849	$0.87	6d	1	1.37mi
38248 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $280,000 Active 620-char remark
17. 2005-06-07
    soldstatus $1,044,454

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,158 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,158 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,158
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-73.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,044,454 Public Records

Property tax history

+45.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,158 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.