4306 Carolyn Way · Eagle Lake, FL 33830

$205,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1975 7,501 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. New Price! Make an offer! Great starter home or investment opportunity — and best of all, NO HOA! This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property features a fully fenced backyard and includes an outdoor storage shed. The plumbing has been completely replumbed for peace of mind. Major systems are in good shape, with the roof approximately 9 years old (installed July 25, 2016) and the A/C just 3 years old. A recent 4-point inspection was completed on July 8, 2025, and is available upon request. Please make an appointment to see this well maintained home.

Key facts

• A/c just 3 years old
• Outdoor storage shed
• 7,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED
• PLUMBING HAS BEEN REPLUMBED
• MAJOR SYSTEMS IN GOOD SHAPE
• ROOF APPROXIMATELY 9 YEARS OLD
• A/C JUST 3 YEARS OLD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.17 acre (about 697 m²)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; North-facing; One story; Entry on main level
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as one-level home
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Fire pit; French doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($304/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#196 in FL, #3,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chain of Lakes Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #634 of 2,144 statewide, top 30%, 1,130 students, 37% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,647 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-32,098
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,879
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33830

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,801/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $83	+0% $25	+5% $-33	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-46	+0% $25	+5% $96	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $77	base $25	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Corbel Ln Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,731	$1.28	5d	1	0.69mi
418 Reina Way Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,666	$1.23	23d	1	0.73mi
588 Crown Rose Dr Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,646	$1.22	15d	1	0.80mi
2782 Pioneer Trl Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,940	$1.31	25d	1	0.95mi
1469 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,000	$1.37	25d	1	1.09mi
1204 Deepwater Cir Eagle Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,900	$1.32	16d	1	1.13mi
3280 Denmark St Bartow, FL	3.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	25d	1	1.42mi
320 Spirit Landings Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	25d	1	1.43mi
4189 Radford Rd Bartow, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,800	$1.21	5d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   remarks 594-char remark
2. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $205,000 Pending 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $205,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $213,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $213,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $213,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $213,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-04-16
   price $213,000
9. 2026-02-18
   price $218,000
10. 2025-12-29
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,801 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,801 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,801
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $1,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #3096

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 4,397
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,740
• Household income: $63,918
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.47%
• Current HPI: 333.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $213,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $218,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+54.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,801 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.