321 Tonkawa Dr · Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$285,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1975 1.94 ac lot Est $378k · 25% under $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

MOUNTAIN CABIN IN SCENIC CRYSTAL LAKES, Priced to sell, Cute Family Mountain Home with Big Views, Scenic Located just a little north of the big Crystal Lake on almost 2 acres of gentle land covered with pine trees, New Roof surface installed 7-20-25, Woodstove in living room to take away the chill, It really does have a lot of space for the money with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and plenty of parking, However It does need a little bit of love and some updates, Custom Wood Doors, Wood trim and Pine ceiling upstairs add to the mountain cabin feel, served by 500 gallon water tanks and septic vault, Deer, Elk and wildlife abound in the area, Close to fishing and nearby vast Roosevelt National Forest

Key facts

• Mountain cabin
• Big views
• Gentle land

Tags

• MOUNTAIN CABIN
• BIG VIEWS
• GENTLE LAND
• PINE TREES
• NEW ROOF SURFACE
• WOODSTOVE IN LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA exists (Crystal Lakes Road & Recreation; Crystal Lakes Water and Sewer); Annual association fee of $950; Additional annual fee of $250; Association transfer fees apply; Association fees include trash; Community clubhouse, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Cistern and other water sources (water meter installed); Septic tank and other sewer; Electricity available; Propane available; Trash service included in association
• Home design: Residential cabin; One and one half levels; Custom builder model; Not new — previously owned; Above-grade finished area approximately 1,234
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Recreation association required; Evergreen trees; Rolling lot; House faces south; Unincorporated location; Lake access; River frontage; Dirt and gravel road access; Private road up to county standards; Horse(s) allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heat; Wood stove
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Wood stove insert fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $383 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $285k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,300
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
292 Jicarilla Trl	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+1%)	15mo	$383,500	$325	74
280 Navajo Rd	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,144 (-2%)	19mo	$414,000	$362	47
486 Okmulgee Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-14%)	23mo	$312,000	$312	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $9,727
• Equity at exit: $74,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $70,427
• Equity at exit: $83,999

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80545

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,356

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $480	+0% $400	+5% $319	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $287	+0% $400	+5% $513	+10% $626
Rate	-1.0pp $543	-0.5pp $472	base $400	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,800 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,800 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,800 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,800 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,800 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $299,900 Active
16. 2025-12-17
    historical
17. 2025-08-29
    price $309,000
18. 2025-05-18
    listed $324,000 Active
19. 1999-05-24
    soldstatus $78,500
20. 1999-05-19
    soldstatus $78,500
21. 1998-08-30
    listed $87,900
22. 1990-12-01
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,748
• − Management: −$2,748
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47
• After-tax cash flow: $4,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Red Feather Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #23247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 280.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+822.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $299,900 IRES
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $309,000 IRES
• 2025-05-18 Listed $324,000 IRES
• 1999-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 1999-05-19 Sold (MLS) $78,500 IRES
• 1998-08-30 Listed $87,900 IRES
• 1990-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.