Is Dakota Farmhouse Plan in Heber, UT a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 0.8% cap rate and $-5,271/mo modeled cash flow at a $949,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Dakota Farmhouse Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 0.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,380/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 24.88

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +5.5/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +3.5/5.0
Cash flow +0.0/30.0
1% rule +0.0/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$949,900

Dakota Farmhouse Plan · Heber, UT 84032

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 4,635 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Enjoy all that the Dakota floorplan has to offer. The master suite is on the main floor with close access to the living room and kitchen. Enter the two-story great room with a high end feel and light flooding the main living area. The two-story great room is perfect to host family or friends. The state-of-the-art kitchen includes gourmet kitchen appliances, stainless steel hood, double ovens, and a gas cooktop. This floorplan features a loft upstairs ideal for a children's play area or additional living space.

Key facts

Master suite
Clubhouse
Two-story great room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $950k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-63k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (59.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (64.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $338k (64.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 74/100 on livability (#68 in UT, #4,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
Wasatch District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 80 in UT (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Wasatch High (math 34% / reading 50%, grade F, #55 of 171 statewide, top 32%, 2,531 students, 16% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 1615 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 835 units permitted in Wasatch County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Wasatch County population projected at +87% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($864k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,008 (64.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.29% ✗
Cap rate: 0.79%
Cash-on-cash: -19.66%
DSCR: 0.13
GRM: 28.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $1,149,090
List price: $949,900
Delta: -17.33%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2752 E Hayloft Ln	0.04mi	4/3.0	4,394 (-5%)	6mo	$1,049,900	$239	82
2772 E Hayloft Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	4,394 (-5%)	9mo	$1,184,900	$270	79
2879 E Hayloft Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	4,311 (-7%)	5mo	$1,288,355	$299	78
2941 E Hayloft Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5	4,311 (-7%)	5mo	$1,156,475	$268	76
2793 E Hayloft Ln	0.07mi	4/2.5	4,429 (-4%)	18mo	$1,179,330	$266	74
933 S Cloverfield Ct	0.13mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,410 (-5%)	6mo	$1,133,810	$257	68
2593 E Water Wheel Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	4,575 (-1%)	18mo	$1,099,950	$240	66
2909 E Hayloft Ln	0.15mi	4/3.5	3,975 (-14%)	2mo	$1,141,220	$287	64
2862 E Hayloft Ln	0.13mi	4/3.5	3,970 (-14%)	4mo	$1,119,900	$282	62
2832 E Hayloft Ln	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,975 (-14%)	8mo	$1,230,310	$310	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -56.0%
Equity multiple: -0.61×
Total profit: $-518,661
Equity at exit: $171,333

10-year hold

IRR: —
Equity multiple: -1.71×
Total profit: $-870,356
Equity at exit: $99,352

Cash invested: $321,745 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 55 active · 10 under contract
Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $1,014,900 ($252/sqft)
Median days on market: 98 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 84032

Rents YoY: 3.9%
Active inventory: 1615
Price-to-rent: 23.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,380 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$6,026
Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,436 /mo · $17,236/yr
Insurance: −$479
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
Net cashflow: $-5,271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,052

Max offer price $386,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,477	-5% $-4,874	+0% $-5,271	+5% $-5,668	+10% $-6,065
Rent	-10% $-5,538	-5% $-5,404	+0% $-5,271	+5% $-5,137	+10% $-5,004
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,692	-0.5pp $-4,979	base $-5,271	+0.5pp $-5,569	+1.0pp $-5,872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $287,272
Closing costs: $34,473
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3171 E Horse Thief Dr Heber City, UT	5.0	3.0	3500	$3,700	$1.06	63d	1	0.62mi
2285 E Red Knob Way Heber City, UT	5.0	5.0	5578	$14,900	$2.67	72d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price: 949900

Exterior

Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
Home design: Single-family plan (Dakota Farmhouse)Address: 2737 E Hayloft Ln, Heber, UT 84032
Construction: New construction (Plan)
Exterior features: Living area approximately 4,635

Interior

Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
Interior features: Plan: Dakota Farmhouse (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $949,900 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $949,900 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $949,900 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $949,900 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $949,900 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $949,900 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $949,900 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $949,900 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $949,900 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $949,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $949,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $949,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $949,900 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $949,900 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $949,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $949,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $949,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $949,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $949,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $949,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $949,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $949,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $949,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $949,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $949,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $949,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $949,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $949,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $949,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $949,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $949,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $949,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $949,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $949,900 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $949,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-25

days on market $949,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $949,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $949,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $949,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $949,900 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $949,900 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $949,900 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $949,900 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $949,900 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $949,900 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $949,900 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $949,900 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $949,900 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $949,900 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $949,900 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $40,561
− Mortgage interest: −$64,367
− Property taxes: −$17,236
− Insurance: −$5,745
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,245
− Management: −$3,245
− Depreciation: −$33,428
Taxable loss: −$86,706

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20,809
After-tax cash flow: $-42,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Dakota Farmhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a high-end feel with a two-story great room, gourmet kitchen, and a loft. The property is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Keeping appliances in good condition can attract more buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can attract more buyers and tenants. ↑
Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Landscaping maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Old Mill School A UT #5/585 Nat'l #2,202/41,679 Middle Timpanogos Middle School D+ UT #39/138 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Wasatch High F UT #55/171 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Wasatch District
NCES district ID: 4901110
Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $67,315
Composite: 42.77/100
National rank: #3154
State rank: #23 of 80 in UT

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Heber

Score: 74/100
State rank: #68
US rank: #4763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Wasatch County · 42,214 people
Metro: Heber, UT
Population (ZIP): 26,111
Household income: $103,440
Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Wasatch County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 42,214 people
By 2030: 49,113 · +16.3%
By 2040: 63,675 · +50.8%
By 2050: 78,879 · +86.9%
By 2075: 116,912 · +177.0%
By 2100: 147,290 · +248.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Italian 3%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wasatch

2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.2% · R 62.6% · Other 2.2%
2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
Current HPI: 298.4537
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.93%
Metro: Heber, UT
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	1	$3B
#453 Zions Bancorporation Salt Lake City $3.1B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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