4215 Dover Ave · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$359,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,969 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2002 10,598 sqft lot Est $339k · 6% over $17/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this beautifully updated home for sale in Santa Fe, TX featuring spacious living areas, modern finishes, and a functional floor plan designed for everyday comfort. The oversized living room is perfect for entertaining, while the formal dining area and cozy breakfast nook create flexible spaces for gatherings and family meals. The kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, a downdraft gas cooktop, built-in electric oven, and abundant cabinet space. The private primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with double sinks, a walk-in shower, and generous space. Secondary bedrooms include walk-in closets, and one bedroom features a built-in desk ideal for a home office, homeschool set

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Formal dining area
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Castle Estates HOA with an annual fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Built in 2002; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Breakfast nook (approx. 12 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 15); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12 and 11 x 13)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Gas fireplace with gas log
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor (approx. 9 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37k ($442k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($50k rent vs $360k).
• Recommended offer: $355k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 129.0% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William F Barnett El (math 59% / reading 46%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 646 students, 59% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $101k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 13.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 128.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 438.21%
• DSCR: 20.50
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,668
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4222 Dover Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,092 (+6%)	2mo	$365,000	$174	86
4218 Castle Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,076 (+5%)	2mo	$355,000	$171	85
12814 Rochester Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,940 (-2%)	16mo	$384,900	$198	78
12546 D Bar Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,933 (-2%)	7mo	$309,999	$160	76
12418 A Bar Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,054 (+4%)	3mo	$284,900	$139	72
12725 W 6th St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-9%)	1mo	$340,000	$189	69
12515 A Bar Dr Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,038 (+4%)	19mo	$337,000	$165	62
12510 A Bar Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-10%)	11mo	$319,000	$180	59
13246 8th St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,846 (-6%)	13mo	$218,000	$118	59
4407 B Bar Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-10%)	14mo	$285,000	$161	53
4022 Pecan Grv	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,019 (+2%)	20mo	$348,500	$173	49
13225 Rene Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,183 (+11%)	8mo	$375,000	$172	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.69×
• Total profit: $2,286,369
• Equity at exit: $53,662

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 50.74×
• Total profit: $5,012,644
• Equity at exit: $31,118

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $50,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$701 /mo · $8,412/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,515
• Net cashflow: $36,799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,488

Max offer price $359,900

Occupancy floor 22%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	0.20mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	43d	1	0.91mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $359,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $359,900 Active
15. 2009-01-16
    soldstatus
16. 2001-09-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,412 · $701/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,412 · $701/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $600,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$8,412
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$48,066
• − Management: −$48,066
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable income: $463,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111,276
• After-tax cash flow: $330,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2009-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,412 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.