504 N College Ave · Aledo, IL 61231

$80,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,277 sqft · Other · 181 Days on market

Built 1883 0.51 ac lot $35/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House in Aledo is looking for a new owner. 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Large level lot, 3 + detached garage with workshop area. Great investment project!

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1883

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#390 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercer County School District 404 (town): math 14% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #439 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.02%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,275
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -57.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $28,693
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $78,690
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61231

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-02-28
    price $85,000
16. 2026-01-21
    price $95,000
17. 2026-01-08
    status Active
18. 2026-01-06
    historical
19. 2026-01-05
    historical
20. 2025-11-26
    price
21. 2025-10-01
    price
22. 2025-09-03
    price
23. 2025-06-18
    listed Active
24. 2021-08-06
    historical
25. 2021-08-06
    historical
26. 2021-08-06
    historical
27. 2021-08-06
    historical
28. 2018-09-14
    soldstatus $97,500
29. 2018-09-14
    soldstatus $97,500
30. 2018-09-14
    soldstatus $97,500
31. 2018-01-10
    listed $97,500
32. 2018-01-10
    listed $97,500
33. 2011-06-19
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,677
• After-tax cash flow: $6,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercer County School District 404
• NCES district ID: 1701395
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,980
• Composite: 16.76/100
• National rank: #9158
• State rank: #439 of 620 in IL

Livability — Aledo

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #8198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aledo, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,958

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,595 people
• By 2030: 13,846 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 12,335 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 10,893 · -25.4%
• By 2075: 8,238 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 6,111 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Danish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.4% · R 62.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.0pp toward R · 2008: 11.9pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+20.7 2012: D+7.4 2008: D+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.03%
• Current HPI: 140.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $95,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) $97,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) $97,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-10 Listed $97,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-10 Listed $97,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-19 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,520 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.