5840 Pony Express Trl #46 · Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$75,700

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $113k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious and inviting mobile home located in a 55+ community in Pollock Pines. This well-maintained home features newer flooring throughout and fresh interior and exterior paint, giving it a clean, bright, move-in-ready feel. The open and functional layout offers generous living space, perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated indoor laundry room and an easy-maintenance lifestyle in a peaceful mountain setting. Ideally located near local amenities while still offering the tranquility Pollock Pines is known for, this home is a wonderful opportunity for comfortable senior living.

Key facts

• Mountain setting
• Newer flooring
• Local amenities

Tags

• NEWER FLOORING
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• MOUNTAIN SETTING
• LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 5840 Pony Express Trl #46, Pollock Pines, CA 95726; Cross street: Blair Rd; Directions: From Hwy 50 take Ridgeway exit. Right on Pony Express Trail. Right into mobile home park.
• Financial info: Land lease: No
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Far West make; Aluminum skirting; Built in 1976; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Manufactured double-wide construction; Built in 1976
• Exterior features: Other roof; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Hood over range; Electric cook top
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven; Hood over range; Electric cook top; Gas-piped fireplace (1); Laundry area inside; Dining and living room combined
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside (inside room); 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #557 of 1,571 statewide, top 38%, 327 students, 48% FRL); Sierra Ridge Middle (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 263 students, 50% FRL); El Dorado High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $523 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,700

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.46%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5840 Pony Express Trl #31	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$92,500	$77	86
5766 Pony Express Trl #7	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	12mo	$108,000	$94	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $43,404
• Equity at exit: $11,287

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $109,555
• Equity at exit: $6,545

Cash invested: $21,196 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95726

• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$397
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,136/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $75,700

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $926	-5% $900	+0% $874	+5% $848	+10% $821
Rent	-10% $734	-5% $804	+0% $874	+5% $944	+10% $1,013
Rate	-1.0pp $912	-0.5pp $893	base $874	+0.5pp $854	+1.0pp $834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,925
• Closing costs: $2,271
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5900 Pony Express Trl Unit 14 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	0d	1	0.11mi
5731 Pony Express Trl Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	1.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	0d	1	0.28mi
6001 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	730	$2,300	$3.15	0d	1	0.34mi
6216 Spruce Ave Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,750	$1.75	0d	1	0.85mi
2988 Bonanza St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	5d	1	0.87mi
2988 Bonanza St Unit 2 Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	5d	1	0.87mi
2893 Polaris St Pollock Pines, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$2,100	$2.41	3d	1	1.15mi
6301 Fairview Dr Pollock Pines, CA	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,950	$1.62	0d	1	1.23mi
6396 Pony Express Trl Pollock Pines, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,425	$2.04	0d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,700 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,700 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 639-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $75,700 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $79,000 Active 144 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,240
• − Property taxes: −$1,136
• − Insurance: −$378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$2,202
• Taxable income: $9,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,368
• After-tax cash flow: $8,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pollock Pines Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0631290
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,474
• Composite: 30.11/100
• National rank: #6334
• State rank: #277 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pollock Pines

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #23561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pollock Pines, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,229

Population outlook (El Dorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,666 people
• By 2030: 193,662 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 192,583 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 185,904 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 169,543 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 139,623 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Dorado

• 2024 margin: R (+12.0) · D 42.6% · R 54.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -12.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.0 2020: R+8.8 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.87%
• Current HPI: 253.8307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B