16 Carrie Ann Ln · Penn Valley, CA 95946

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a peaceful pocket of Creekside Village, this corner-lot home offers calm and ease upon arrival. With a quiet meadow behind the property and a small community green space just across the way, the surroundings feel relaxed and removed, framed by a gentle foothill backdrop. Inside, the open layout flows comfortably, blending simple, creative character with modern updates, including Pergo flooring (approximately 5 years old, with new matching flooring in the primary bathroom). A standout feature is the enclosed sunroom with fresh paint, adding approximately 250 square feet of additional space (not included in the square footage). It's a flexible spot that becomes whatever you need mo

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Paved trail
• Nearby shopping

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• COMMUNITY GREEN SPACE
• PAVED TRAIL
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 20
• NEARBY SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: No (land lease amount field present but property is not land-leased)
• Financial info: Not provided
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Cable available; Internet available; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Updated/remodeled and original elements present; Skyline manufacturer, Buddy make; Metal roof; Built in 1978
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured double-wide construction; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Metal skirt (mobile home); Shed(s); Auto sprinkler front and back; Corner lot with regular shape; Landscaped front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Hood over range; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub, tub with shower over, and shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Window coverings and window screens; Uncovered patio and porch; Storage area (exterior storage mentioned under interior features list); Pantry cabinet and laminate counters in kitchen; Formal dining area; Family room and sun room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric hookup for laundry; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 2.8% in Penn Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,129 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Penn Valley Union Elementary (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #253 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.57%
• DSCR: 3.61
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,360
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Quail Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$80,000	$60	76
10372 Quincy Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	14mo	$435,000	$299	65
319 Quail Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	10mo	$79,000	$65	61
11294 Sierra Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$280,000	$194	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $63,793
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $156,571
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95946

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $1,230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,292	-5% $1,261	+0% $1,230	+5% $1,199	+10% $1,168
Rent	-10% $1,045	-5% $1,137	+0% $1,230	+5% $1,323	+10% $1,415
Rate	-1.0pp $1,275	-0.5pp $1,253	base $1,230	+0.5pp $1,207	+1.0pp $1,183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $14,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,401
• After-tax cash flow: $11,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Valley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0601427
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,786
• Composite: 32.4/100
• National rank: #5728
• State rank: #253 of 517 in CA

Livability — Penn Valley

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1129
• US rank: #25672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Penn Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,448

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.27%
• Current HPI: 226.5683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $28 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.