1824 Live Oak Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2020 10,001 sqft lot $156/sqft · 21% below area Est $254k · 21% under $7/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity in Canyon Lake ideal for full time living, a weekend getaway, or short-term rental potential. Positioned in the desirable Canyon Lake area, 1824 Live Oak Dr. offers a spacious lot with room to create your ideal outdoor setting, expand, or simply enjoy the Hill County lifestyle. Inside, the home features a comfortable layout with natural light and a practical flow, making it easy to move right in or update to match your vision. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake access, boat ramps, parks, and local dining, this property is well suited for both personal use and investment purposes. With recent exterior updated already in place, you can move forward with confidence whil adding your own value over time. If you've been looking for a Canyon Lake property with flexibility and upside, this is one to see.

Key facts

• Asphalt driveway
• Brand new front door
• Storm door

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• SOLAR PANELS
• ASPHALT DRIVEWAY
• BRAND NEW FRONT DOOR
• STORM DOOR
• BACK DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,878 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.45%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,694
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -21.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1155 Pecan Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	2mo	$169,000	$132	86
1457 Willow Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	20mo	$199,900	$149	70
1875 Live Oak Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+14%)	15mo	$240,000	$165	62
710 Tamarack Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	18mo	$149,000	$103	59
996 Cypress Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+14%)	22mo	$284,000	$195	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,646
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,110
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,125/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,665

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $217	+0% $161	+5% $104	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $87	+0% $161	+5% $235	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $212	base $161	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
691 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,495	$0.90	24d	1	0.10mi
537 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1357	$1,820	$1.34	5d	1	0.23mi
1200 Willow Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,875	$1.38	44d	1	0.25mi
1285 Live Oak Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	44d	1	0.39mi
1660 McIver Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1378	$3,450	$2.50	44d	1	1.10mi
1616 Lonesome Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	2d	1	1.11mi
1375 Canyon Trce Unit B Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,450	$1.62	2d	1	1.25mi
578 Misty Glen Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,850	$1.45	13d	1	1.32mi
1123 Hedgestone Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Price Change 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Price Change 43 DOM
14. 2026-04-18
    listed $200,000 New 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Opportunity in Canyon Lake ideal for full time living, a weekend getaway, or short-term rental potential. Positioned in the desirable Canyon Lake area, 1824 Live Oak Dr. offers a spacious lot with room to create your ideal outdoor setting, expand, or simply enjoy the Hill County lifestyle. Inside, the home features a comfortable layout with natural light and a practical flow, making it easy to move right in or update to match your vision. Located just minutes from Canyon Lake access, boat ramps, parks, and local dining, this property is well suited for both personal use and investment purposes. With recent exterior updated already in place, you can move forward with confidence whil adding your own value over time. If you've been looking for a Canyon Lake property with flexibility and upside, this is one to see.

15. 2025-06-16
    historical
16. 2025-06-16
    historical
17. 2025-04-17
    price $224,000
18. 2025-04-16
    listed $224,000 Active
19. 2025-03-07
    price $228,500
20. 2025-03-07
    status Price Change
21. 2025-01-13
    historical
22. 2024-12-20
    historical
23. 2024-11-17
    price $228,000
24. 2024-09-10
    price $230,000
25. 2024-09-10
    price $230,000
26. 2024-08-29
    price $239,000
27. 2024-08-28
    price $239,000
28. 2024-06-28
    price $239,500
29. 2024-06-28
    price $239,500
30. 2024-05-02
    listed $240,000 Active
31. 2024-04-20
    listed $240,000 New
32. 2021-05-25
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2021-03-29
    status Pending
34. 2021-02-06
    listed $174,900 New
35. 2020-11-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,125 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,534/yr (+$128/mo · 72.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,125
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$332
• After-tax cash flow: $2,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $200,000 LERA
• 2025-06-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-06-16 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $224,000 LERA
• 2025-04-16 Listed $224,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $228,500 LERA
• 2025-03-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-01-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-12-20 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $228,000 LERA
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $230,000 LERA
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $230,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $239,000 LERA
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $239,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $239,500 LERA
• 2024-06-28 Price Changed $239,500 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-02 Listed $240,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-04-20 Listed $240,000 LERA
• 2021-05-25 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-03-29 Pending — LERA
• 2021-02-06 Listed $174,900 LERA
• 2020-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,125 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.